2019 déjà vu? Why Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin again

Not each market cycle is identical, however there are patterns price noting.

Primarily based on this idea, analyst Michael van de Poppe has projected a repeat of the pre-COVID-style reshuffling amongst top-cap belongings. Basically, these cycles are typically outlined by rotational flows into different belongings.

To place this in context, the projection attracts from the 2019 cycle, when the ETH/BTC ratio hit a backside at 0.02, solely to launch a 300%+ rally by early This fall 2021.

Naturally, the query is, can Ethereum [ETH] pull off a repeat?

Supply: TradingView (ETH/BTC)

Looking at the technicals, the ratio is rebounding off the identical 0.02 ground.

Because the chart reveals, since Q2 2025, the ratio has skilled vertical growth, rising 75%. This aligns carefully with Ethereum’s 80% rally to $3.4k, in contrast with Bitcoin’s [BTC] 15% acquire over the identical interval.

In brief, ETH’s weak point in 2025 versus BTC got here from a 38% pullback within the ETH/BTC ratio throughout Q1, earlier than bouncing again. However does this level to a confirmed backside? In that case, we may very well be trying initially of a breakout.

Ethereum’s L1s take heart stage

Positive, anticipating a pre-COVID-style rally may be a little bit of a stretch. 

The logic is straightforward: For the reason that COVID-19 rally, the market has advanced considerably, putting BTC on the heart of each spot and speculative capital flows, with its market cap reaching a report $2.5 trillion in early This fall 2025.

That stated, Ethereum appears to be carving out its path, exhibiting power throughout key metrics. For example, Ondo Finance now represents 11% of ETH’s RWA TVL, whereas Ethereum’s TPS not too long ago hit a report 58k.

Supply: Growthpie.com

Taken collectively, this power reveals the 2019-style run hasn’t light. 

As a substitute, Ethereum’s on-chain efficiency is clearly catching as much as Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D). For instance, ETH’s market share has jumped 60%+ from the 8% low in Q2 2025, additional reinforcing this thesis.

The important thing distinction? ETH’s dominance is extra fundamentally pushed.

Within the present macro context, this provides Ethereum a transparent edge over Bitcoin. As rules take form, L1s are positioned to front-run the momentum, with the 75% ETH/BTC rebound serving as an early sign of this pattern.

Ultimate Ideas

• Ethereum’s market share has rebounded sharply, with the ETH/BTC ratio up 75% from the Q2 2025 low, supported by robust developer exercise.
• L1s are positioned to front-run market momentum, and ETH’s dominance indicators a possible pre-COVID-style breakout as rules make clear.