74% Ethereum supply is underwater – ETH’s next steps look uncertain

• 74% of Ethereum is held at a loss, signaling weak market construction and rising sell-side stress.
• Purchase-side conviction stays low, leaving Ethereum range-bound until robust quantity and sentiment shift greater.

Ethereum [ETH] is going through mounting stress as on-chain knowledge reveals a pointy deterioration in holder profitability, including weight to the idea that its worth is trapped underneath an enormous resistance wall.

Supply: X

Knowledge from IntoTheBlock reveals 73.97% of ETH provide—roughly 106.75 million cash—is now held at a loss. In distinction, solely 24.07% of ETH stays in revenue.

This imbalance paints a bearish image of present market construction, with few holders sitting on worthwhile positions and lots of nonetheless anchored above the present buying and selling vary.

A market held hostage

Almost 45% of Ethereum’s provide—66.29 million ETH—was purchased between $2,194 and $2,571, on-chain knowledge reveals.

Supply: IntoTheBlock

This vary, held by 12.28 million wallets, has a mean value foundation of $2,381.85, forming a robust resistance zone.

On the flip facet, help seems fragile.

Simply 2.83 million ETH, or 1.96% of provide, is presently “On the Cash.” These holdings, bought between $1,786.34 and $1,791.11, are unfold throughout 95,470 addresses—signaling weak help at present ranges.

With no robust purchaser conviction round $1,789, worth may drift freely — in both path. Till stronger demand materializes, worth may drift—however gravity favors the bears.

The persistent $2,200–$2,580 wall has reappeared in successive knowledge runs. Every day reaffirms its measurement and energy.

But questions stay — Is that this resistance zone actually unbreakable, or is it extra of a psychological barrier?

700k ETH gone in two months

Supporting the bearish view is Ethereum’s Trade Netflow knowledge, pulled from CryptoQuant, which reveals a marked development of large-scale withdrawals.

Reportedly, there have been outflows exceeding 300,000 ETH in February and March 2025.

Supply: CryptoQuant

That features spikes of 400K ETH on the seventeenth of February and 409K ETH on the seventh of March. These withdrawals aligned with steep worth drops, suggesting buyers eliminated belongings to keep away from promoting into weak spot.

Whereas such withdrawals can point out long-term holding, in a falling market additionally they replicate low urge for food for spot publicity. In distinction, inflows have been uncommon and weak.

A 166,065 ETH influx throughout the January-end did not reverse worth momentum, signaling restricted shopping for curiosity.

Losses stack as hopes fade

Metrics from Santiment present related alerts.

Supply: Santiment

The Community Realized Revenue/Loss chart reveals consecutive realized losses. For instance, $922.48 million on the third of February and $788.36 million on the seventh of March.

Income principally appeared in early January, peaking at $580.15 million on the New Yr’s. The NRPL has remained detrimental since then.

This dominance of losses aligns with the GIOM studying that almost all holders are underwater. Analysts name it capitulation habits, reflecting decreased short-term confidence.

Ethereum stays underneath stress with practically 74% of its provide held at a loss, principally between $2,200 and $2,580.

This zone types a significant resistance barrier, bolstered by weak help at present costs, continued trade outflows, and protracted realized losses.

Whereas the info confirms robust overhead resistance, it doesn’t assure it should maintain. A big breakout continues to be potential if met with sufficient quantity and demand.

Till then, Ethereum is more likely to keep caught beneath $2,200, with upside capped by vendor stress and restricted purchaser curiosity.