Bitcoin’s 97% profit looks bullish – Until you see who’s buying!
Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin nearing the tip of its bull run?
No, knowledge reveals indicators of extra room to develop.
Can adverse Funding Charges predict the subsequent Bitcoin rally?
Current historical past reveals Bitcoin usually surges after funding charges flip adverse.
97% of Bitcoin [BTC] provide was in revenue, and short-term holders (STHs) have been within the highlight. Whereas costs appear stretched, on-chain knowledge confirmed the market would possibly nonetheless have extra room to develop.
So, is that this the start of the tip… or simply the beginning of the ultimate push?
The indicators are evident
The NUPL (Web Unrealized Revenue/Loss) metric was at +0.52, at press time, a degree that’s normally the place the transition from optimism to full-blown euphoria takes place.
In previous cycles like 2017 and 2021, this zone has been linked to peak bullish sentiment… and main worth rallies.
Supply: CryptoQuant
With 97% of the Bitcoin provide in revenue, investor confidence remained excessive. However this additionally means the market is getting crowded, and any additional upside may have some consolidation first to remain sustainable.
New whales take the wheel
STHs now make up 44% of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, a file excessive. This shift reveals that LTHs are taking income whereas new market entrants are stepping in with critical shopping for energy.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Usually, this switch of management occurs close to the ultimate leg of a bull run. However this time could be completely different.
Sturdy ETF inflows, rising stablecoin liquidity, and institutional consumers are absorbing the promote strain, making a extra steady form of euphoria.
The subsequent large signal to observe? A drop in STH dominance may herald a brand new wave of long-term accumulation.
The spark behind large rallies
Right here’s the place things get interesting.
Each time Funding Charges on Binance flip adverse, Bitcoin tends to rebound – and the sample is repeating. Unfavourable funding normally reveals that merchants are leaning bearish, creating excellent circumstances for a contrarian rally.
Supply: CryptoQuant
The previous few instances this occurred – in October 2023, September 2024, and April 2025 – BTC shortly shot up from $28K to $73K, $57K to $108K, and $95K to $123K, respectively.
With Funding Charges dipping once more and costs stabilizing close to $115K, the subsequent large transfer may as soon as once more shock the bears.
