Bitcoin in limbo? – Why investor psychology hints at $100K BTC retest

Key Takeaways

Is BTC’s newest dip a wholesome reset, or one thing deeper?

BTC’s on-chain information exhibits conviction holding, however stretched leverage and fading sentiment trace this can be the early section of a broader unwind.

What’s driving the present Bitcoin cycle?

The cycle has turned psychological, with market flows and positioning dictating value greater than technical construction or macro catalysts.

The market uncertainty has Bitcoin [BTC] buyers on edge. 

In lower than every week, the TOTAL crypto market cap has shed roughly $300 billion, dropping to round $3.5 trillion. Bitcoin accounted for practically 53% of the drawdown, confirming that this was a BTC-led deleveraging occasion.

Whereas momentum hasn’t turned absolutely bearish, the timing of current market strikes has stunned merchants. Regardless of favorable macro conditions, sharp volatility led to over $1 billion in liquidations, shaking investor confidence throughout the board.

Supply: CoinGlass

Wanting nearer, longs bore the brunt of the transfer.

Round $954 million in lengthy positions have been worn out, signaling a traditional bull entice because the market moved in opposition to macro expectations. This trapped longs and triggered a 1.6% dip, pushing BTC under the $110k ground.

And but, on-chain information tells a steadier story. 

Unrealized losses account for 1.3% of BTC’s market cap, at press time, which is properly under the 5% degree that sometimes indicators early capitulation.

That exhibits holder’s conviction continues to be intact regardless of the flush. Given the context, does this setup level to a wholesome reset?

The BTC cycle shifts: Mindset over mechanics

The Fear and Greed index exhibits a transparent psychological shift in BTC’s cycle.

Forward of the FOMC, the index climbed practically 10 factors to 42, pulling again into the impartial zone. The market was clearly leaning dovish, with BTC Open Interest (OI) pushing to a two-week excessive of $74 billion.

However the transfer rapidly unraveled. The market pale the bounce, sending the index again into concern at 31 as OI contracted about 4.05% to $71 billion. Briefly, sentiment turned defensive, with merchants de-risking into volatility.

Supply: CryptoQuant

And but, Bitcoin’s OI–Worth Divergence (%) metric has flipped purple to 10.35%. This indicators that leverage stays stretched, whilst value motion cools, with BTC now being pushed by place flows reasonably than spot demand.

Actually, the metric has climbed to its highest degree since mid-August. 

Again then, BTC dropped to $107k after three purple weekly closes off its $123k ATH. With an identical setup forming, a breakdown can’t be dominated out, with analysts eyeing the $100k–$105k zone as the following correction pocket. 

On this context, Bitcoin’s cycle seems sentiment-driven, reasonably than structural. Until momentum flips, BTC dangers a deeper flush, with the present dip resembling the early section of a broader unwind reasonably than a wholesome reset.