Analyst’s warning – Bitcoin’s early-2026 rebound could precede a major crash!
Key Takeaways
Has Bitcoin entered a bear market?
Not conclusively, and never but. There’s one other week for BTC to reply after the newest dying cross formation.
What can be an indication of restoration?
A transfer past $110k, the 50DMA, inside November can be a great signal, and would present parallels to April.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] value motion in current weeks is similar to what occurred earlier this 12 months in March. Then, and now, Bitcoin broke down beneath a 3-month vary formation. Each instances, this vary shaped after making new all-time highs.
In a post on X, analyst EndGame Macro detailed why Bitcoin is prone to discover help and bounce in early 2026, based mostly on one other financial analysis. This expectation additionally got here with a warning – The bounce wouldn’t be the beginning of the following rally greater, because it had been in April and Might.
The explanations for anticipating a stoop in Q2 2026 have been diversified. The analyst cited liquidity drying up throughout tax season and the Treasury starting to construct up the TGA, resulting in tightened liquidity situations, amongst others.
This could trigger an extra lower in threat urge for food, which might see BTC wrestle and sink deeper right into a bear market.
Supply: BTC/USDT on TradingView
So, will we see a situation just like the chart above reveals? One which mirrors March-April 2025. and the rally proceeds to make one other new all-time excessive?
Or will we see a quick bounce in Q1 2026, one which lulls buyers right into a false sense of safety earlier than the worth falls deeper?
Making sense of the indicators and what Bitcoin bulls should do subsequent to remain afloat
U.S. Greenback Index
The U.S. Greenback Index (DXY) is a measure of the worth of the usDollar in opposition to a basket of six foreign currency. A rising DXY pattern implies greenback energy. A falling pattern implies weak fiat, which usually means sentiment is extra risk-on and correlates to stronger Bitcoin efficiency.
The DXY developments may also be used as a macro sign by international buyers. In 2021, when the Bitcoin bear market started, DXY went on a powerful uptrend. Because it stands, the DXY has retained its bearish construction – A great signal for BTC.
Nevertheless, this might but change. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which had been 88% a month in the past, has fallen to 44%. The uncertainty round price cuts means the DXY downtrend might be arrested, which received’t assist BTC bulls.
Lastly, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen giant outflows for the reason that market crash on 10/10, reflecting weak investor sentiment. Whereas this doesn’t assure sustained losses, it does serve to focus on the place we’re proper now.
It might not be sensible to miss the energy of the bearish market sentiment.
In a post on X, CEO and founding father of Into The Cryptoverse Benjamin Cowen famous the formation of a Bitcoin dying cross. Earlier dying crosses have marked a market backside. Therefore, if Bitcoin can not reply bullishly inside per week and problem the 50DMA at $110k, the dying cross would forecast a “macro decrease excessive”.
A scarcity of bullish response would imply that in a number of months, one other rally in the direction of the $110k space would happen. It might be the macro decrease excessive, or a bounce that’s half of a bigger downtrend. This could agree with the Q2 2026 expectations outlined earlier.
