Bitcoin: How did BTC react to U.S. inflation cooling down?

To know what lies forward, it’s essential to first look again.

This fall has upended market expectations. What was purported to be a “seasonal tailwind” for Bitcoin [BTC] ended up being its weakest quarter of 2025, with BTC down 23%, erasing over 60% of the positive aspects from Q2 and Q3.

The end result? Optimism shook, leveraged merchants flushed, help ranges cracked, and concern spiked. Notably, even with BTC nonetheless about 30% off its $126k early-October peak, broad “dip shopping for” hasn’t actually kicked in.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

In brief, the market has swung from optimism to warning.

And but, Tom Lee’s BTC name hasn’t budged. In a current interview, he projected a brand new all-time excessive for BTC earlier than the primary month of 2026. That brings up the large query: What “precisely” lies forward for the crypto market?

current macro information, his name isn’t fully out of the blue.

Given this context, then, may Bitcoin lastly hit its historical Q1 trend this time, with the quarter averaging a 50% ROI and traditionally rating because the asset’s second most bullish interval?

U.S. inflation hits multi-year lows

Past the charts, This fall shocked on the macro entrance too.

Even after back-to-back Fed charge cuts, Bitcoin barely moved. The Federal shutdown clearly stored traders cautious, with Open Interest in verify. In brief, merchants weren’t chasing greed, and sentiment stayed muted.

Nonetheless, now, with the shutdown behind us, November’s CPI report is again in focus. Notably, core inflation has dropped to 2.6%, the bottom since April 2021, whereas the general CPI got here in at 2.7% versus 3.1% anticipated.

Supply: TradingEconomics

On the technical facet, this places U.S. inflation near the Fed’s 2% goal.

Notably, the market is already reacting: BTC jumped 2.93% intraday, clearly shrugging off FUD across the BOJ charge hike. Using this “break”, Ark Invest shortly moved into crypto shares, hinting at renewed institutional curiosity.

Total, the cooling inflation report has given the market a brand new spark. Will it maintain? With This fall’s 23% bleed behind us and most FUD cleared, it appears like Bitcoin might be forming a strong base to repeat its typical Q1 bullish streak.

Ultimate Ideas

• Bitcoin’s This fall shakeout units the stage for early 2026, with BTC down 23%, market sentiment cautious, and a possible base forming for a robust Q1 rally.
• Cooling U.S. inflation, now close to the Fed’s 2% goal, is already sparking market strikes, signaling early 2026 upside potential.