Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Is the Q1 pattern about to flip in ETH’s favor?

Buyers are clearly displaying robust threat urge for food throughout the board.

To begin, memecoins are driving a lot of this momentum. Prime-cap memecoins are posting double-digit weekly beneficial properties.

At first look, this raises an apparent query: Are traders merely chasing hypothesis?

Nonetheless, after we shift focus to Ethereum [ETH], that narrative begins to weaken. On-chain metrics as a substitute level to a provide shock forming, highlighted by BitMine’s staking of 771k ETH over the previous two weeks.

Supply: CoinGlass

Briefly, capital is rotating into conviction-driven belongings slightly than pure “hype” trades. Notably, this rotation is beginning to present up in value.

As a result of ETH has outperformed BTC by 2×, logging a 9.3% transfer in only one week into 2026.

On a quarterly view, this units up a transparent divergence.

For context, since 2022, Bitcoin [BTC] has constantly outperformed ETH in Q1, posting stronger rallies and shallower pullbacks. Nonetheless, with an Ethereum provide shock constructing, does this cycle lastly break the pattern?

From Q1 loss to early lead – Ethereum vs Bitcoin in 2026

Ethereum’s 2026 roadmap is clearly developer-focused. 

From RWA tokenizations to DeFi, the community is increasing its institutional footprint and boosting L1 competitiveness. 2025, it laid a solid base for scaling adoption and attracting extra institutional exercise in 2026. 

Notably, the influence is now displaying on-chain as nicely.

Ethereum supply is getting locked. As of press time, 1.32 million ETH was ready to stake, whereas solely 3k is queued to exit. In reality, entry exceeds exit for the primary time in six months.

Supply: TradingView (ETH/BTC)

On this context, ETH/BTC posting a close to 4% rally to this point isn’t a fluke. 

As a substitute, it might mark the beginning of an even bigger transfer. With a tightening provide, stable fundamentals, and a rising L1 footprint, long-term conviction in Ethereum is displaying, with investors clearly committing for the cycle.

That units up a robust 2026 divergence.

ETH’s 2× bigger transfer than BTC to this point is simply the beginning, and if momentum holds, this cycle might lastly flip the script, with ETH delivering greater ROI than BTC by the top of Q1 2026.

Remaining Ideas

• On-chain metrics present 1.32 million ETH queued to stake vs. simply 3k exiting, signaling robust capital rotation into Ethereum over hype trades.
• ETH has outperformed BTC 2× YTD. If momentum holds, this cycle might break historic patterns with ETH delivering greater ROI than BTC by the top of Q1.