Is Bitcoin’s ‘supercycle’ still possible as on-chain signals turn red?

Investor conviction is being examined as soon as once more. 

Over the previous ten days, a large group of holders has slipped underwater as main top-cap belongings failed to carry key resistance ranges. Consequently, many merchants who purchased close to the native prime are actually feeling the strain.

Bitcoin [BTC] isn’t any exception. Simply ten days in the past, BTC printed its second-highest excessive, clearing the $95k degree. Nevertheless, the rally shortly pale, with the worth topping close to $97k, pushing a number of cohorts into unrealized losses.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Naturally, consideration now turns to what might reignite HODLing. 

Macro FUD and institutional promoting check BTC’s resilience

The curent macro setup isn’t providing a lot help. Volatility is already rotating capital into protected havens, whereas Bitcoin’s institutional bid continues to melt, evidenced by almost $1.8 billion in ETF outflows in below per week.

In the meantime, GameStop doesn’t appear satisfied both. Its on-chain wallets lately moved 100% of Bitcoin holdings to Coinbase Prime. Furthermore, its BTC balance sheet, the transfer probably suggests potential promoting.

Again in mid-Might 2025, the agency accrued 4,710 BTC at a median worth of $107k, deploying $504 million. With BTC now hovering round $90k, that place suggests potential realized losses of about $76 million.

Supply: CryptoQuant

All issues thought of, getting buyers to HODL seems to be like a troublesome ask.

Bitcoin’s institutional bid is weak, and general sentiment is low. And but, the big players are talking up a Bitcoin “supercycle.” Are they seeing one thing the market hasn’t priced in but, or is that this simply one other setup for a shakeout?

CZ indicators Bitcoin “supercycle,” defying weak sentiment

Defying macro FUD, heavyweights are nonetheless bullish on a BTC supercycle. 

For 2026, the chart from RR2Capital highlights three daring predictions, averaging $215k because the year-end goal for Bitcoin. In the meantime, Binance founder CZ echoed an analogous outlook in a latest video interview.

Naturally, the query stays: What are they betting on? On-chain metrics paint a cautious image. Bitcoin’s bear momentum is constructing, with Internet Realized Revenue/Loss turning crimson as buyers start realizing losses.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Traditionally, strikes like this have lined up with deeper corrections.

That places Bitcoin’s $85k help below strain, pushed by institutional promoting, ETF outflows, and fading conviction from heavyweights like GameStop. Consequently, the motivation for buyers to HODL is weakening.

On this context, bullish Bitcoin forecasts seem much less knowledge‑pushed and extra influenced by exterior components akin to volatility surrounding the crypto bill, an overheated metals market, and the latest U.S. withdrawal of E.U. tariffs.

Therefore, this divergence highlights the hole between market fundamentals and optimistic forecasts, pulling in speculative capital and doubtlessly setting Bitcoin up for a liquidation entice, as BTC leverage ramps again up.

Closing Ideas

• Bitcoin slipped from $97k to $90k amid institutional promoting, ETF outflows, and main holders like GameStop doubtlessly promoting.
• Regardless of cautious on-chain metrics, heavyweights like CZ forecast a BTC “supercycle,” making a divergence that would set off a liquidation entice.