Bitcoin prices fall: Will 2026 mirror BTC’s 2022 bear market?

Is the market edging nearer to a repeat of a 2022-style bear market?

Based mostly on historic patterns, the chance can’t be dominated out. Furthermore, one key issue has weakened much more because the 2022 cycle, which provides weight to CryptoQuant’s view that we might be seeing a repeat situation.

Based on AMBCrypto, the 2024 post-halving cycle is the weakest up to now. For perspective, Bitcoin [BTC] gained 1.3k% in 2017 and 60% in 2021 through the first 12 months after halving, solely to hit bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Quick ahead to the final post-halving cycle, and BTC’s year-end ROI in 2025 landed at -6.3%, exhibiting simply how muted returns have been in contrast with earlier cycles. Naturally, the query arises: What modified?

The rise of ETFs has dampened the impact of scarcity-led rallies. ETFs are seeing billions in weekly outflows because the market flips risk-off. Put merely, institutional flows are capping the upside that used to gasoline large positive factors.

The consequence? A rising lack of conviction. Not like the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, which adopted huge rallies, Bitcoin’s 20% drop up to now in 2026 is the result of loss realization slightly than a pure correction after euphoria.

Naturally, the query is: Is Bitcoin on observe for a weaker cycle than 2022?

Bitcoin market stress continues

Bitcoin is exhibiting a stress sample similar to Could 2022. 

Based on CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s UTXOs in Loss (%) have re-entered the 27–30% zone, indicating that a big share of market individuals has moved from revenue into unrealized loss. 

On the identical time, Glassnode reports the 3D-SMA of Internet Realized Revenue & Loss at –$317 million/day, a stage final seen in December 2022. Taken collectively, these metrics recommend that loss realization is gaining momentum.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Notably, this reinforces AMBCrypto’s thesis. 

The divergence between the 2022 bear market and Bitcoin’s ongoing 20% correction is critical. Whereas previous bear markets adopted huge rallies, the present drawdown is basically pushed by individuals realizing losses.

On this context, it is smart that analysts are calling the BTC cycle “weaker” than 2022. With ETF flows capping upside and metrics exhibiting stress, 2026 may develop into the softest post-halving bear market but.

Last Ideas

• Not like earlier cycles, Bitcoin’s 20% drop in 2026 is pushed by individuals realizing losses slightly than post-rally profit-taking.
• ETF outflows and on-chain stress metrics recommend 2026 might be the softest post-halving bear market but.