Truth Social files for Bitcoin ETF – Risky gamble or a game-changer?

The largest takeaway from the 2025 cycle? Danger belongings are formally now not following the standard post-halving playbook. With a 7.85% yearly shut, the TOTAL crypto market cap didn’t experience the 2024 halving rally.

Mainly, the 2024 halving minimize Bitcoin [BTC] rewards, slashing the quantity of recent BTC getting into the market. Traditionally, that form of shortage sparks a post-halving pump, however this time, the market didn’t observe the textbook.

So, what modified? Traders realized that Bitcoin ETFs can minimize each methods. Throughout the This autumn 2025 rally, BTC ETFs dumped roughly $4 billion in a single quarter, simply because the market turned risk-off, making Bitcoin’s dip even worse.

Supply: SoSoValue

Notably, that very same dynamic is taking part in out in 2026. 

Up to now, Bitcoin ETFs have posted two consecutive months of outflows, totaling practically $2.3 billion. That aligns with BTC’s 21.3% drop and is already shaping as much as be the worst Q1 performance because the 2018 cycle.

Unsurprisingly, this momentum has spilled over to ETF corporations as nicely. As an example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is down 21.5%, including to final yr’s 6.4% loss. Consequently, HODLers are actually considerably underwater.

Towards this backdrop, U.S President Donald Trump’s media platform, Fact Social, is stirring the market once more. The large query now – Can his ETF push really reverse the development, or may it find yourself including dangers that make post-halving pumps even tougher to return by?

Bitcoin faces ETF headwinds regardless of Trump’s crypto submitting

These days, any transfer by the President makes timing much more vital.

On this context, President Trump’s media platform, Fact Social, has filed with the SEC for 2 crypto ETFs. One targets Cronos [CRO], whereas the opposite, Bitcoin and Ethereum [ETH], together with Ethereum staking.

Notably, the market reacted quick. Bitcoin jumped by 4%, nonetheless shy of the $70k-mark, whereas ETH rallied tougher, up 5.2% – Breaking the $2k psychological resistance, although it’s nonetheless a great distance from its earlier highs.

Supply: TradingView (ETHA/USD)

Even so, large ETF gamers are feeling the warmth. BlackRock’s ETH ETF (ETHA) noticed $9.3 million in outflows, marking the seventh straight day of redemptions, with ETHA shares now 30% underwater to date in 2026.

All in all, one factor is obvious – Bitcoin ETFs have develop into a significant sign of market sentiment. Regardless of the large headlines, the worth response has been comparatively muted, proof that investors are staying cautious.

On this surroundings, it’s arduous to see President Trump’s ETF endorsement turning the development round. As an alternative, with ongoing outflows, the danger of extra strain on costs and a slowdown in post-halving rallies is just rising.

Last Abstract

• Ongoing outflows have amplified dips, with Bitcoin down 21.3% and a few ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA deeply underwater.
• Regardless of the SEC filings, investor warning and chronic outflows counsel post-halving rallies could also be nonetheless in danger.