12 Green Months Out Of 24
A modest declare. A daring quantity. Each are on the desk for Bitcoin this week as a debate over how one can learn short-term streaks in worth good points grows louder.
Associated Studying
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has identified that half of the final 24 months confirmed positive returns. Based mostly on studies, he then gave a virtually 90% probability that Bitcoin could be larger in 10 months.
That leap from a easy depend to a agency likelihood is the headline grabber. It ought to be met with cautious questions on how the percentages had been calculated and what assumptions had been constructed into the mannequin.
Counting Constructive Months
Peterson based mostly his view on a evaluation of month-to-month efficiency knowledge. Figures compiled by CoinGlass present that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in constructive territory, whereas the remaining six completed decrease.
Based on the info, 50% of the previous 24 months ended with good points. Peterson stated he tracks this rolling two-year window to identify potential turning factors in worth traits.
50% of the previous 24 months have been constructive.
This means a 88% probability that Bitcoin can be larger 10 months from now.
The typical return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000.
Knowledge goes again to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026
Market Odds And Betting
An change of bets reveals a really totally different view. Polymarket at present costs December as solely a 17% shot at being one of the best month of 2026, with November a hair larger.
These numbers reply a special query from Peterson’s: they mirror market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether or not the worth will merely be larger at a future date.
Betting markets could be blunt instruments, however they do pack the collective view of many merchants right into a single quantity.
Bitcoin Value Motion
Value has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical rigidity within the Center East tightened.
Secure-haven belongings like gold and oil jumped on information flows, and Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some patrons stepped again. On the identical time, dwell tickers confirmed the token about 20% under its stage at the beginning of the 12 months, a reminder that headline percentages cover large intraday swings.
Analysts Are Cut up
Voices from the buying and selling desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe advised near-term green candles could possibly be coming, urging merchants to look at for a carry. Alternatively, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low might not arrive till late 2026.
Each views relaxation on totally different units of indicators — one on momentum and chart construction, the opposite on longer cycle patterns and danger of macro shocks.
Sentiment Nonetheless Down
In the meantime, circulate knowledge from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast.
Associated Studying
Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to say no, with studies noting that dialogue and exercise round Bitcoin predictions have slowed. Merchants seem cautious, weighing previous traits towards present uncertainty out there.
Featured picture from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
