Ethereum: As bearish sentiment rises, can ETH hold $1.5K?
Journalist
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Ethereum, the king of all altcoins, continued buying and selling close to $1,975 after collapsing almost 60% from its October 2025 peak.
Rigidity has intensified throughout Ethereum markets. Kalshi’s contracts replicate rising conviction in additional draw back, amplifying the strain already seen on the chart.
Was the market bracing for collapse or dangerously overreacting?
Prediction markets flip bearish on ETH
Kalshi merchants priced roughly 49–50% likelihood of Ethereum [ETH] dropping to $1,250 by 2026. Almost 30% odds even prolonged towards ranges beneath $1,000. This was not passive worry. It was funded by positioning.
Supply: Kalshi Prediction Markets
The bearish framing centered on ETF outflows and institutional promoting strain. Layer 2 worth accrual issues added structural doubt. Due to this fact, Ethereum was handled as susceptible moderately than resilient.
Nonetheless, prediction markets mirrored sentiment snapshots, not assured outcomes. Traditionally, excessive draw back possibilities typically emerged close to emotional exhaustion.
Consequently, some members seen this as defensive overcrowding.
Increased timeframes stay structurally bullish
Regardless of these developments, Ethereum’s increased timeframe construction remained technically intact. A bullish pennant formation continued to compress value motion.
Supply: TradingView
Particularly, $1,513-$1,537 acted because the quick structural help. Repeated reactions above this degree preserved the macro sample. Failure to defend it might have invalidated the bullish framework decisively.
Nonetheless, even a bounce from $1,513 wouldn’t mechanically affirm power. Continuation required sustained momentum and improved market circumstances. Due to this fact, construction alone didn’t assure enlargement.
Liquidity favors the upside
Liquidation heatmaps confirmed most draw back liquidity had already been cleared. Stops beneath latest lows have been aggressively swept through the early February dip.
Supply: CoinGlass
In the meantime, substantial liquidity remained positioned above ETH’s value. Clusters prolonged towards the $5,000 area on increased timeframes. As seen in earlier cycles, such imbalances typically acted as value magnets.
This created uneven publicity for brief positions. A pointy upward impulse might have triggered pressured liquidations quickly. Due to this fact, bearish positioning carried structural fragility.
Is that this the ultimate shakeout earlier than a breakout?
The market entered a decisive confrontation section. Sentiment leaned bearish, but structural integrity persevered.
Trying forward, $1,513 remained the defining threshold. A decisive breakdown would have validated Kalshi’s draw back pricing. Nonetheless, continued protection might have pressured shorts into uncomfortable unwinds.
As we progress into 2026, psychology stays cut up. Worry dominated positioning. Construction nonetheless managed the end result.
Remaining Abstract
- Bearish possibilities surged, however $1,513 remained intact.
- Liquidity imbalance steered upside threat had not disappeared.
