Bitcoin still cannot close a daily candle above $106k after 8 failed attempts in 2025
Bitcoin briefly rose to $106,300 early Tuesday earlier than sellers pushed it again underneath the $106,000 threshold, extending a months-long sample of rejection simply shy of January’s file excessive.
The extent has capped each advance in 2025, turning the spherical determine into an more and more psychological barrier for bulls.
The newest check arrived this weekend after Moody’s minimize the USA’ sovereign score to Aa1. The downgrade sparked a short bid throughout so-called hard-asset hedges, lifting Bitcoin by virtually 2% earlier than momentum stalled.
Consideration additionally turned to Capitol Hill, the place the Senate voted Monday night to advance the GENIUS Act, a stable-coin invoice that Barron’s described as a milestone for complete U.S. digital-asset guidelines. Bitcoin seems to have reacted favorably to the information.
Market sentiment
Over the previous week, crypto spot exchange-traded funds absorbed $7.5 billion of web inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT car alone now controls 633,212.00 BTC, equal to three% of the entire provide, underscoring the structural bid that has helped the asset rally 42% yr so far.
Edul Patel, co-founder of buying and selling platform Mudrex, mentioned a each day shut above $107,500 is required to “unlock a clear run at a recent all-time excessive.” He pegged first assist close to $102,750, the place the 50-day shifting common converges with Monday’s opening worth. “One other failure invitations a fast journey towards the psychological $100,000 deal with,” Patel told Financial Instances.
Macro alerts stay blended. March consumer-price inflation cooled to 2.3% %, the softest print since 2024, but Treasury yields stay elevated as futures worth fewer than two price cuts this yr. Reuters famous that actual yields above two p.c have traditionally diluted enthusiasm for risk-on trades, even because the downgrade drama revives Bitcoin’s store-of-value pitch.
Bitcoin’s response to Moody’s headline and the development of the GENIUS stablecoin invoice strengthened its position, alongside stablecoins, as a macro hedge when conventional finance wobbles. Nonetheless, analysts warning that correlation with the Nasdaq stays intermittent; the tech benchmark is up 18% yr so far, leaving Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative removed from settled.
Volatility, at present close to all-time lows, might speed up into the Might 30 choices expiry, the place open curiosity clusters across the $110,000 and $115,000 strikes.
A hawkish tilt in Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes or a brand new delay within the subsequent part of the GENIUS invoice may strain the newest bounce. A decisive shut above $107,500 would doubtless drive possibility writers to hedge, probably propelling worth discovery towards the January peak of $109,224.
JPMorgan’s determination to let wealth purchasers purchase Bitcoin straight added to the “trad-fi doorways opening” storyline, providing a reminder that institutional demand can outlast knee-jerk promoting.
Whether or not that bid proves robust sufficient to show the $106,000 wall right into a ground could also be determined over the following 48 hours of macro information.
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