Altcoin Season Index dips to 26: Is Bitcoin dominance fading, or just pausing?

• The Altcoin Season Index fell to 26, exhibiting Bitcoin dominance however leaving room for a future alt pivot.
• A sustained transfer towards $270B in market cap is essential to validating the alt season breakout construction.

The general cryptocurrency markets noticed a slight rebound, however it was altcoins — not Bitcoin [BTC] — that led the cost. Naturally, this sparked hypothesis of a possible sell-off. Nevertheless, the information painted a unique image.

Muted alternate inflows sign calm amid volatility

Whereas worth swings intensified, the Change Influx Transaction Rely for altcoins remained subdued.

On main platforms like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit, inflows barely crossed 30,000—effectively beneath the 100,000+ peaks seen throughout previous corrections in March and December 2024.

This was not like the previous, the place altcoin sell-offs have been seen earlier than massive corrections.

The flat influx sample represented a change within the habits of the merchants, probably into decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and stablecoin swaps into USDC and USDT.

Supply: Julio Moreno/X

It’s quiet… Too quiet

Nevertheless, when the information solely considers the centralized exchanges, it may be misrepresentative of your entire market exercise.

The quiet influx was a sign that holders weren’t scrambling to promote positions but. This indicated fewer panics and a possible longer-term shopping for.

With the uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, the Concern and Greed Index at 52 indicated that sentiment had reset to impartial following the extreme flush that took most cryptos within the purple.

This was a sign that panic was subsiding, and clean-up efforts have been being finished.

Supply: CoinMarketCap

The impartial stage was neither a sign of extreme greed nor concern however somewhat an indication of cautious optimism. The current volatility and liquidation-driven declines led to a reset of the markets.

Can the altcoin season index flip?

A glance into the Altcoin Season Index confirmed the metric declined again to 26 after being within the 30s beforehand.

This indicated that Bitcoin nonetheless dominated current volatility. Nevertheless, altcoins weren’t completely sidelined—some indicators of restoration emerged.

If the index crosses above 50, it will affirm a stronger altcoin pattern. For now, the dimensions tipped towards Bitcoin, however the dynamic might shift shortly.

Supply: CoinMarketCap

Déjà vu? 2025 mirrors 2021’s sample

Winding up, the comparison of the Altcoin Season 2021 and 2025 confirmed one frequent factor after one other, that’s, a “double fakeout” barely beneath the 1-month transferring common, after which a strong restoration.

Again then, this led to a multi-month altcoin rally.

In 2025, we’ve already seen two sharp wicks beneath $180 billion, each adopted by recoveries. The construction is in place, however execution will depend on what comes subsequent.

Supply: Merlijn The Dealer/X

Nonetheless, quantity and macro have been nonetheless absent in 2025. Ought to the energy collect in the direction of $270B in general altcoin cap, we may even see a breakout.

Nonetheless, the lack to remain above the MA might reject the transfer. The configuration was in place, though it wanted extra assist and utility-based flows to affirm it.