Assessing if Bitcoin miners are close to capitulation or not

• Bitcoin has fallen by 11.28% from its ATH, lowering miners profitability
• Miners might capitulate as revenue/loss sustainability enters extraordinarily underpaid zone

Since hitting a brand new all-time excessive of $109k practically 3 weeks in the past, Bitcoin [BTC] has dropped by roughly 11.28% on the charts.

This decline has not solely affected short-term holders when it comes to profitability, but in addition miners. In reality, the newest dip in BTC’s worth charts has left miners struggling to maintain up with the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Frost, as an example, noticed that miners are extraordinarily underpaid proper now, risking miners’ capitulation.

Bitcoin’s Miner Revenue/Loss enters excessive underpaid zone

In accordance with CryptoQuant, Bitcoin miners’ profit-loss sustainability has entered the extraordinarily underpaid zone.

Supply: CryptoQuant

This, following the April 2024 halving which resulted in a rising mining problem. Whereas it has turn out to be harder to mine, Bitcoin’s hash fee has continued to develop – An indication of the surge in competitors amongst miners.

Supply: CryptoQuant

With Bitcoin persevering with to say no since hitting its ATH, miners’ returns have been shrinking. Quite the opposite, the realized mining value has been comparatively excessive, in comparison with the final problem backside.

This market situation means that miners would possibly begin to capitulate quickly. Traditionally, when miner revenue/loss profitability turns unfavourable, it’s usually adopted by a mid-term optimistic worth response. Merely put, miners have reacted by promoting Bitcoin to cowl prices.

Supply: CryptoQuant

With miners actively promoting, the miner-to-exchange flows hit document ranges too, indicating that miners are promoting closely for the time being.

We will additionally see this because the miners’ netflow complete turned optimistic after being unfavourable for five consecutive days. This appeared to suggest that extra miners are sending their BTC tokens to exchanges to promote.

Supply: CryptoQuant

With miners dealing with operational difficulties, they’ve responded by promoting. Some might even be compelled to capitulate briefly.

In earlier cycles, this case has created accumulation zones for different market individuals to re-enter the market.

Is miner capitulation forward for BTC?

Therefore, with miners’ profitability dropping, it’s important to find out if capitulation for miners is forward or not.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Take a look at the Puell a number of, as an example – This metric has remained above 1 since 13 January, dropping under 1 solely twice in 2025, in the course of the first weeks of the yr. What this implies is that though the Puell a number of has fluctuated, miner income stays reasonably wholesome.

Due to this fact, so long as this stays above 1, miners are much less more likely to capitulate. Therefore, the drop might simply be a wholesome correction as an alternative of weak point. This might suggest accumulation by sturdy miners and buyers.

What’s subsequent now?

In accordance with AMBCrypto’s evaluation, for Bitcoin miners to keep away from capitulation, BTC’s worth has to get well to extend miner revenue/loss.

If the worth continues to fall, simply because it has over the previous week, miners’ capitulation might be subsequent. Due to this fact, BTC should reclaim and maintain above $100k for miners’ sustainability targets to be achieved.