Avalanche: Can AVAX’s 25% volume surge break its multi-year downtrend?
Journalist
Posted:
After months of losses, altcoins have begun exhibiting indicators of restoration, with Avalanche [AVAX] amongst them
On the twentieth of February 2026, AVAX noticed renewed exercise as quantity climbed 25 p.c to $248.87 million. It traded round $9.25, pushing into the descending trendline fashioned after the October 10 crash. That violent selloff marked the beginning of a chronic grind decrease.
Since that crash, the descending resistance repeatedly rejected each restoration try. In the meantime, $7.29 acted as key structural assist and remained the extent bulls couldn’t afford to lose.
With value urgent resistance once more, the true query was whether or not momentum lastly had the energy to interrupt it.
MACD types a bullish crossover
On the day by day chart, AVAX fashioned a bullish MACD crossover because it approached the downtrend channel from October’s crash. The histogram turned barely optimistic, signaling brief‑time period momentum shifting away from bearish management.
Supply: TradingView
At press time, RSI climbed towards 42, recovering from current lows however nonetheless beneath 50. Due to this fact, momentum improved, but it had not totally transitioned into bullish territory. AVAX remained instantly underneath resistance, which restricted the affect of the crossover.
Leverage market evaluation
Spot Taker Purchase Dominance stayed elevated on Cumulative Quantity Delta, based on CryptoQuant, reflecting aggressive market shopping for.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, Futures Taker Purchase Dominance additionally remained elevated, exhibiting participation throughout leveraged markets.
Supply: CryptoQuant
This mix instructed energetic demand somewhat than passive bidding. Nonetheless, regardless of sturdy taker exercise, the worth didn’t decisively reclaim the descending resistance.
In consequence, purchaser aggression had not but translated into structural change. Nonetheless, the information implied accumulation was creating beneath value motion. Solely a structural breakout may validate that buildup.
Will AVAX break its the multi-year downtrend?
On the weekly chart, the multi-year downtrend continued to behave as macro resistance. Each main rally since 2021 had stalled beneath this ceiling. This meant AVAX had remained in a bear market since 2021.
Supply: TradingView
Weekly RSI remained close to 31.78 and beneath its transferring common, signaling weak momentum. Weekly MACD stayed beneath zero with a barely unfavorable histogram. Due to this fact, the broader construction remained bearish regardless of short-term enchancment on decrease timeframes.
Wanting forward, a weekly shut above the multi-year downtrend could be required to substantiate a shift. Till that occurred, Avalanche remained inside a bigger bearish framework.
Last Abstract
- Elevated taker dominance and rising quantity confirmed participation, not affirmation.
- A weekly reclaim of macro resistance remained the defining requirement for pattern reversal.
