Benchmark analyst: 183% boom for Strategy stock despite BTC sell-off pressure

Technique inventory (Nasdaq:MSTR) confirmed blended outcomes on the 2nd of December. This adopted affirmation that the agency would promote its Bitcoin holdings if the mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value) drops under 1x. 

The inventory dipped over 8% to a low of $149 earlier than rebounding and shutting the Monday session at $171.5. 

Nevertheless, analysts at funding financial institution and analysis agency Benchmark raised MSTR’s value goal to $705, implying a 183% upside potential. 

In a notice to purchasers, Benchmark’s fairness Analysis Analyst Mark Palmer downplayed the MSTR fears, particularly these linked to BTC drawdown and $8.2 billion debt obligations.  

He added,  

“In easy phrases, the corporate could be unable to totally cowl its ~$8.2bn of convertible debt excellent if Bitcoin’s value have been to fall under $12,700 and keep there.”

That may imply an 86% BTC value crash to cripple MSTR, however Palmer mentioned such an end result was extremely unlikely. 

“Whereas drawdowns of 80%+ have occurred a number of occasions throughout Bitcoin’s 17-year historical past, we consider a number of macro shocks must occur concurrently to drive such a reversal at this level.”

In December, solely Benchmark issued a powerful purchase for MSTR, regardless of the MSCI exclusion risk and the BTC correction. 13 different analysts additionally gave a ‘average purchase’ rating. 

Supply: Market Beat

Based on Palmer, the inventory has a “Bitcoin-linked reflexivity provides it upside torque that no different fairness can match.”

Influence of Technique’s $1.44B reserve

Technique additionally introduced a $1.44 billion reserve to cowl obligations linked to dividends from most well-liked shares it makes use of to boost capital for BTC purchases. 

Some hailed the reserve as a cushion for the agency to keep away from promoting its BTC to cowl the obligations. Nevertheless, because the reserve itself was one other mortgage, others feared that your complete MSTR ecosystem might collapse quickly. 

For critics, such a state of affairs might drag BTC and your complete crypto market with it. In reality, Peter Schiff called it the “finish of MSTR.”

Supply: X

Will Technique promote its BTC holdings?

Nevertheless, CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman disagreed with Schiff’s doomsday outlook. 

He highlighted that the present MSTR stage was undervalued (tagging decrease MSTR value bands) relative to its BTC reserves, a sign that triggered a rebound in 2022. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

Market focus will now shift to MSTR mNAV (at the moment at 1.15x) and whether or not the agency sells its 650K BTC.

On the prediction website Polymarket, the odds of Technique’s BTC sell-off by mid-2026 jumped to over 40% earlier than easing under 30% at press time. Put in a different way, the prospect for a similar was low however not zero. 

Supply: Polymarket

Closing Ideas

• Regardless of market jitters, Benchmark foresees a 180% upside potential for MSTR inventory, and 13 analysts are bullish on the inventory. 
• The market started pricing the likelihood that Technique could promote BTC in 2026.