Bitcoin: As U.S.-China trade war returns, is BTC the market’s last refuge?

• China’s 34% tariff retaliation deepens international commerce tensions, impacting Bitcoin and international markets.
• Analysts see Bitcoin as a resilient hedge amid tariff-induced market turmoil and Fed fee reduce hopes.

Tensions within the international financial system have intensified following China’s swift response to the U.S.’s newest commerce measures.

China’s tariff plans

After President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on the 2nd of April, China retaliated by imposing a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, efficient the tenth of April.

This tit-for-tat escalation provides gasoline to an already heated commerce warfare, elevating issues throughout a number of markets—together with crypto.

Bitcoin [BTC], which had briefly climbed to $84,000, rapidly slipped under $82,000 following China’s announcement.

With the European Union additionally signaling readiness to introduce countermeasures, market volatility may deepen, particularly within the digital asset area.

Analysts stay assured about Bitcoin

Nevertheless, amidst this, analyst Eric Weiss showed optimism round Bitcoin as he famous, 

“Because the tariff warfare escalates and shares bleed, Wall St will finally notice there’s an alternate: Bitcoin. No earnings threat. No geopolitics. Simply math. The second capital actually pivots, BTC doesn’t simply maintain up, it outperforms dramatically.”

The announcement additionally delivered a blow to the U.S. greenback, with the Greenback Index (DXY) sliding 2%—an indication of shaken investor confidence.

In response, China swiftly referred to as on the U.S. to withdraw its tariffs and warned of countermeasures to guard its nationwide pursuits.

Polymarket bets robust on upcoming recession

That being stated, recession fears are additionally gaining traction in prediction markets.

On Kalshi, the chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 has jumped to 61%, whereas Polymarket reveals an identical spike to 57%, marking a notable surge from simply 20% earlier this 12 months.

Regardless of the escalating commerce tensions, analysts like Kevin Capital counsel the crypto market could stay extra resilient than conventional equities.

Whereas sectors tied to the S&P 500 endure immediately from tariffs, crypto seems buffered by macroeconomic sentiment, significantly round rate of interest expectations.

With Fed funds futures now projecting 5 fee cuts, optimism lingers that financial coverage may present a cushion for digital belongings.

Nevertheless, Kevin warns this optimism is fragile—ought to Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismiss the potential of easing, crypto may rapidly observe equities right into a deeper hunch.

For now, with Bitcoin rebounding on robust U.S. job information, the market’s focus stays mounted on upcoming CPI figures and Powell’s stance, which may dictate crypto’s near-term trajectory.