Bitcoin ETFs’ ‘lion-like’ performance could see $150B in annual inflows
Bitcoin’s worth restoration in January was marked by robust institutional inflows. Throughout their first two days of buying and selling in 2026, the U.S. spot ETFs’ inflows hit $1.2 billion.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas famous that the renewed demand translated to $150 billion per 12 months, terming the inflows ‘lion-like.’ He added,
“Advised ya’ll if they will absorb $22 billion when it’s raining, think about when the solar is shining.”
Supply: Bloomberg
On the desired dates, on the 2nd and fifth of January, the ETFs attracted a complete day by day internet influx of $471 million and $697 million, respectively.
Nevertheless, on the sixth of January, the ETFs noticed $243 million in internet outflows. This coincided with Bitcoin worth stalling at $94K after the early-year bounce. However will the ETF inflows turn into constant and drive a rally in BTC?
Will the inflows elevate BTC increased?
It’s value stating that analysts singled out late 2025 ETF outflows as tied to hedge fund unwinds. Significantly those who have been aggressively trying to find the premise commerce.
One of many tell-tale indicators was the leverage flush on the Chicago Mercantile Trade (CME) as the premise commerce yield was halved from +10% to five%.
In line with analyst James Van Straten, nevertheless, the early 2026 inflows confirmed no spike in CME’s Open Curiosity (OI), suggesting long-term conviction slightly than leveraged and zero-sum foundation commerce performs by hedge funds.
“BTC worth continues making increased highs with out OI rebuilding, indicating publicity is held unhedged and flows are directionally lengthy, not arbitrage pushed.”
It was true that CME’s OI was nonetheless down round $10 billion, in comparison with a excessive of $19 billion to $20 billion seen in 2025.
Supply: Velo
In different phrases, if ETF inflows turn into constant, with no huge spike in leveraged bets by way of the CME, a constructive restoration may very well be potential above the $94,000 resistance.
Broader BTC demand stays weak
Even so, ETFs are only one facet of the BTC demand dynamics. There are others, equivalent to retail, BTC treasury companies, and different refined particular person buyers. They collectively affect, additionally affect BTC worth alongside market sentiment.
Regardless of the renewed institutional inflows, the general demand for BTC remained adverse, in line with CryptoQuant.
Supply: CryptoQuant
A stronger, extra sustainable BTC restoration may very well be possible if the obvious demand shifts again to constructive once more.
In the meantime, BTC’s worth acquired rejected on the $94K-$96K roadblock (crimson). This has been an impediment for bulls since late November and has remained the important thing hurdle to clear earlier than surging to the $100K psychological stage.
Supply: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Last Ideas
- U.S. spot ETFs noticed $1.2 billion in inflows within the first two days of 2026 buying and selling, but additionally recorded a $243 million in internet outflows on the third day.
- Amidst the fluctuations, BTC’s general demand has remained adverse, capping a stronger worth restoration.
