Bitcoin, ETH, Dogecoin Rally Faces 3 Checkpoints: Bitwise CIO
Crypto entered 2026 with a pointy bid, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the following leg increased hinges on three checkpoints which have much less to do with chart patterns and extra to do with market plumbing, Washington, and the broader threat backdrop.
In a January 6 memo, Hougan wrote that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been every up 7% year-to-date as of Monday, January 5, whereas higher-beta names had moved sooner, Dogecoin was up 29% over the identical window. The query, he argued, is whether or not that early energy can flip into one thing sustained moderately than a fleeting January pop.
Three Hurdles To Overcome For Bitcoin, ETH And Dogecoin
Hougan’s framework begins with a reminiscence the market would moderately bury: October 10, 2025, when crypto noticed what he referred to as “the biggest liquidation occasion in its historical past,” with “$19 billion in futures positions worn out in a single day.” The mechanical injury mattered, however the psychological overhang might have mattered extra. Within the weeks that adopted, he wrote, buyers apprehensive the cascade had “impaired main market makers and/or hedge funds—maybe fatally,” elevating the specter of pressured promoting as giant gamers unwound.
“One of many causes crypto struggled to rally in This autumn was that buyers apprehensive considered one of these huge gamers may need to wind down operations, a course of that sometimes requires the pressured sale of property,” Hougan wrote. “These potential gross sales hung over the market like a heavy fog.”
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His first hurdle, then, is solely the absence of one other blow-up with comparable systemic implications. On that entrance, he struck a notably assured tone. “The excellent news: If it have been going to occur, it in all probability would have occurred by now,” he wrote, including that whereas “there’s no assure,” a agency shutting down would probably have tried “to wrap up by yr’s finish.” In his learn, a part of the early-2026 rally displays a market that has “put October 10 within the rearview.” He labeled that hurdle a “Inexperienced Mild.”
The second checkpoint is legislative, and much much less throughout the market’s management: passage of the crypto market construction invoice referred to as the CLARITY Act. Hougan wrote the invoice is “winding its method by means of Congress,” with the Senate “concentrating on January 15 for markup,” the stage the place committees align drafts and attempt to transfer a ultimate invoice towards a vote.
He didn’t current it as a clear glide path. “Hurdles stay,” he wrote, citing “competing visions of tips on how to regulate DeFi, stablecoin rewards, and political conflicts of curiosity.” Nonetheless, he framed markup as a pivotal gate: if CLARITY clears that course of, it could be “an enormous step towards approval.”
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Hougan’s core argument is about sturdiness. “Passage of the CLARITY Act is essential to the long-term way forward for crypto within the U.S.,” he wrote. “With out laws, the present pro-crypto regulatory tilt on the SEC, CFTC, and different businesses may reverse beneath a brand new administration. Passage of the Act would enshrine core rules into regulation and supply a robust basis for future progress.”
He pointed to indicators from each politics and prediction markets. White Home crypto czar David Sacks, Hougan wrote, says “we’re nearer than ever” to passing the invoice. Kalshi, he added, places the percentages at 46% by Might and 82% by yr’s finish. Hougan’s personal takeaway: “I’m cautiously optimistic.” He tagged this hurdle “Yellow Mild.”
The third checkpoint is the one crypto merchants typically want to dismiss, till it issues: equity-market stability. Hougan argued the market doesn’t want a roaring inventory rally to help crypto, noting “crypto will not be extremely correlated with shares.” However he drew a tough line round drawdowns that power broad deleveraging and risk-off positioning. “A pointy collapse—say, a 20% pullback within the S&P 500—would take the shine off of all threat property within the quick time period, crypto included,” he wrote.
Right here, he was express about limits: “I can’t declare any particular experience on the fairness markets.” Whereas he famous some buyers are apprehensive about an AI bubble, he pointed to prediction markets that “see a comparatively low chance of a recession in 2026 and a roughly 80% chance of S&P 500 positive aspects.” Just like the CLARITY Act, he labeled the fairness backdrop a “Yellow Mild.”
Hougan closed by arguing the setup is constructive if these remaining yellows flip inexperienced. “There’s a lot to love within the crypto market proper now,” he wrote, pointing to rising institutional adoption, surging real-world use instances “like stablecoins and tokenization,” and the market “beginning to really feel the advantages of the pro-crypto regulatory push that began in January 2025.” If the three milestones fall into place, he added, “2026’s early momentum could have some critical legs.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,717.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
