Bitcoin falls below $100K – Should traders brace for a deeper BTC dip?

• Bitcoin reclaimed momentum after a pointy drop under $100k.
• With battle danger barely priced in, is that this bounce real power?

A month in the past, Bitcoin [BTC] hit $111k for the primary time, Open Curiosity (OI) was flying at $80.31 billion, and the market was all-in on a bullish Q2 shut. Every little thing pointed to new highs.

However what occurs when the market strikes in opposition to mainstream expectations? With only a week to go earlier than Q3, BTC has retraced exhausting, dropping to $98,385 – the bottom day by day shut in 45 days.

Nonetheless, bulls stepped in quick, as BTC’s value climbed again to $101,849, at press time. Just like the market isn’t pricing in any actual battle danger simply but.

Is that this a real present of Bitcoin’s bid-side power, or simply blind optimism setting the stage for a deeper flush?

Markets shrug off struggle alerts

When BTC hit its all-time excessive, the market didn’t observe with full-blown euphoria. Technicals stayed cool, with no main overheating alerts.

Although the derivatives side was buzzing with high-risk, aggressive bets.

Quick-forward thirty days, and BTC is down practically 10% from that peak. OI has dropped to $67.71 billion, again to early Could ranges. So, calling this a traditional leverage flush to wipe out weak fingers wouldn’t be a stretch.

And the market appears to agree. Bitcoin’s spot alternate reserves preserve grinding decrease, now breaking multi-year lows. On the identical time, BTC dominance has surged to 65.76% – the best in 4 years.

Supply: Glassnode

In brief, the market is leaning defensive, however not precisely panicked.

Within the final 72 hours, the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear websites, Russia has floated nuclear help for Iran, and Iran’s parliament voted to shut the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not your common information cycle.

But risk assets are barely reacting. S&P futures opened down simply -0.5%, and Brent crude is up a modest +2.3%. For context, if markets had been even starting to cost in a protracted Strait closure, oil could be surging previous $120.

Structurally, the market is clearly leaning towards a short-duration battle with restricted macro fallout. However in doing so, is that this calm laying the groundwork for a volatility shock in Bitcoin?

Bitcoin resilience amid mispriced macro danger

Regardless of tagging a 45-day low, whole realized earnings for the day got here in tender, at simply $753 million. It was nicely under the $1 billion threshold that sometimes alerts widespread distribution.

This implies holders are staying disciplined, and exit liquidity hasn’t been aggressively tapped. The HOLDing development stays structurally intact, with FOMO nonetheless outweighing worry.

Examine that to previous danger occasions, just like the “Liberation Day” selloff the place BTC plunged 16% in every week and realized earnings spiked sharply as panic promoting accelerated.

Supply: Glassnode

In the meantime, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) simply dropped to -0.25 in below 72 hours, hitting levels not seen for the reason that 2021 “China Ban” when ELR bottomed at -0.35. 

That traces up cleanly with Bitcoin’s 12% drawdown and a $13 billion wipeout in OI, confirming a transparent deleveraging occasion.

However right here’s the factor: The market nonetheless isn’t taking the geopolitical danger significantly. If leverage begins piling again in too quickly, that subsequent macro shock might hit loads more durable than folks count on.

In that setup, reloading leverage right here is structurally dangerous. One macro jolt, and Bitcoin might unwind deeper, with $98k simply the primary cease.