Bitcoin: From $124,700 to $78,000 – BTC’s rise, fall, and reality check
Bitcoin has now fallen to $78,441 in early 2026, wiping out almost all of the features it constructed in the course of the rally that started in spring final yr.
After a gradual first half of 2025, Bitcoin surged strongly within the second half of the yr, reaching a file excessive of $124,700 in October 2025.
Nonetheless, the momentum didn’t maintain.
Over the previous 4 months, Bitcoin has steadily declined, sliding again to the identical value ranges it final traded at in April 2025.
Elements accountable for this drop
Topping the listing is the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the following Federal Reserve Chair, which modified how markets see rates of interest.
His hawkish stance has raised fears that fee cuts will gradual or cease, strengthening the U.S. greenback and lowering urge for food for threat belongings like Bitcoin.
On the similar time, rising geopolitical and commerce tensions have pushed traders into defensive mode.
One other key issue is capital rotation.
Not like previous cycles, Bitcoin did not rise alongside gold and silver.
Moreover, as costs started to fall, giant liquidation occasions and complicated leverage constructions rapidly unraveled.
What began as a gradual decline became a pointy selloff, pushed extra by pressured liquidations than investor panic.
On the similar time, the thrill round spot Bitcoin ETFs has light, with giant outflows as skilled traders diminished threat.
Then, the expectations round broader authorities adoption, similar to a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, haven’t but became motion, resulting in disappointment-driven promoting.
Circulating fears
Naturally, this sharp value drop has revived a few of crypto’s oldest fears, particularly around Satoshi Nakamoto.
Though Bitcoin’s creator has been silent for over 15 years, the idea that Satoshi nonetheless controls round 1.1 million BTC continues to weigh on market sentiment.
Some traders concern that even a small motion of these cash may shake confidence and set off a serious selloff.
Nonetheless, not everybody agrees.
Kevin O’Leary dismisses these fears, arguing that the present volatility is solely a clearing section earlier than a a lot bigger institutional wave enters the market.
In his current interview, he added,
“Till Bitcoin turns into a regulated safety via the Readability Act and will get as much as 150,000 or possibly 200,000 the place you’re agnostic to both leasing the facility at sub six cents a kilowatt hour to it hyperscaler or mining Bitcoin.”
Technical parameters
On the technical facet, issues nonetheless look heavy.
Supply: Buying and selling View
Indicators just like the MACD stay bearish, exhibiting the influence of Bitcoin’s four-month decline from its October peak.
That stated, there may be one constructive signal, because the Relative Power Index (RSI) has dropped into oversold territory.
Previously, this stage usually meant that promoting strain was near working out.
When that occurs, costs can bounce sharply within the brief time period.
This implies the present stage round $78,441 could also be stronger help than it seems.
Past charts
Trying past charts, market sentiment is holding up higher than anticipated.
Bitcoin’s dominance additionally stands at 59.82%, exhibiting that capital is staying in Bitcoin as a substitute of flowing into smaller altcoins.
Due to this fact, in the long run, Bitcoin is in a high-pressure ready section.
The following few weeks will probably be key in deciding whether or not concern takes over or a restoration begins. For now, the market feels stretched, and a bounce might arrive prior to many anticipate.
Last Ideas
- This correction has been much less about value and extra about credibility in a tightening world surroundings.
- Oversold technicals counsel promoting strain could also be near exhaustion, even when confidence hasn’t absolutely returned.
