Bitcoin halving or ETF flows: What will drive BTC to $195K?

• BTC rallied +68% in Q1 2024, partly attributable to US spot BTC ETF flows.
• Krueger estimated that BTC will hit $195K by end-2024 because of the flows.

Bitcoin [BTC] recorded a formidable Q1 2024 efficiency due to the flows from the brand new US spot BTC ETFs (exchange-traded funds). 

The digital gold rallied by over 68% in Q1, rising from $38.5K to $73.7K. Over the identical interval, the full flows from the spot ETFs hit $12 billion, and complete belongings crossed $59 billion. Collectively, it pushed BTC market capitalization to over $1 trillion. 

Bitcoin value driver: Halving vs ETF flows

Utilizing historic knowledge, Fred Krueger, a Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor, estimated that BTC might hit $195K by the top of 2024. 

Posting his evaluation and assumptions on X (previously Twitter), Krueger singled out the 2024 cycle, stating that; 

“We’re at $70K and $1.4 trillion market cap.

We’re in all probability getting one other $50 billion in inflows this 12 months (ETFs plus exchanges)

At a multiplier of fifty, that’s $2.5 trillion.

Brings us to a $3.9 trillion market cap or $195K BTC.

I believe that’s the bottom case for this 12 months. It might be larger.”

Krueger stressed that the 2024 bull market cycle was primarily pushed by ETF flows from conventional finance (TradFi). 

“However the true story is Bitcoin ETFs. TradFi meets Bitcoin.” 

Nevertheless, he famous that BTC might lengthen to $500K in two years earlier than encountering a nasty crash. 

Krueger didn’t explicitly state what would trigger the crash if BTC hit $500K. Nevertheless, he believed the halving occasion would cut back the price slump however not essentially drive an enormous rally.  

“I believe the halving paves the best way for the rally, because it lowers the quantity that will probably be dumped on a 4x rally.”

Put otherwise, the BTC maximalist sees ETF flows as a vital value driver in comparison with the provision shock attributable to the halving occasion. 

At press time, Bitcoin slipped beneath $70K and retested the $68K space earlier than reclaiming $69K. 

Rekt Capital, a crypto market analyst, claimed the transfer confirms a breakout after BTC recorded a weekly candlestick shut of $71.2K, above the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive of $69K.