Bitcoin – ‘Rainbow zones,’ five-month losing streaks, and what next for BTC’s price

Bitcoin [BTC], at press time, was buying and selling close to $69,900, urgent into the green-blue accumulation zone in the direction of the purchase valuation hall alongside its logarithmic progress curve. This positioning adopted 5 consecutive unfavorable month-to-month closes. These have compressed the worth downwards from hotter mid-band areas.

As momentum cooled down, long-term holders and huge wallets absorbed circulating provide, steadily withdrawing cash from exchanges. Their bids deal with sub-$70,000 pricing as discounted relative to the expansion channel.

Supply: Blockchaincenter

In the meantime, the decline appeared to coincide with broad altcoin deterioration too, with over 80% of tokens trending bearishly. Such a systemic weak spot releases liquidity, which then rotates defensively into Bitcoin.

As concern expands, weaker fingers distribute their holdings into energy, enabling whales to extend their balances whereas decreasing the combination value foundation.

Market response appeared to replicate this cautious stabilization, reasonably than panic. Derivatives leverage has thinned, decreasing compelled promoting strain. Spot demand, although selective, is constant to layer bids throughout the accumulation bands. This interaction retains worth structurally supported, whilst macro sentiment stays fragile.

Promote-side fatigue rises as Bitcoin assessments statistical limits of bear persistence

Bitcoin is now approaching a fifth consecutive unfavorable month-to-month close – A sample seen solely in 2011 and twice in 2018. Throughout each durations, the worth rebounded by over 100% inside 5 months, whereas 2011 delivered roughly 70–80% relying on the entry timing.

The cryptocurrency’s worth peaked at round $126,000 in October 2025. Since then, it has seen a 46–47% drawdown. This decline stays materially milder than the prior 80–85% bear extremes.

In the meantime, the realized worth is sitting close to $55,000–$56,000, whereas spot continues to converge in the direction of that stage whereas progressively easing holder stress.

Supply: X

On the similar time, the MVRV Z-Score has been hovering between 0.39 and 0.43, getting into traditionally undervalued territory. Whereas the momentum might have slowed down, the worth could also be stabilizing throughout the $60,000–$80,000 vary. Decrease wicks replicate defensive demand, suggesting absorption reasonably than cascading whereas positioning the market close to late-bear exhaustion.

Following the earlier construction, trade outflows have held agency as the worth moved into the green-blue worth zone. A significant withdrawal in early February occurred close to the “BUY” help space. As Bitcoin left exchanges, complete reserves fell – An indication that traders have been shifting cash into long-term storage, reasonably than making ready to promote.

In the meantime, as leverage declines and out there trade provide tightens, regular outflows mixed with ETF demand level to accumulation throughout the long-term progress construction, not market breakdown.

All in all, the cooldown in derivatives publicity, paired with sustained withdrawals, might be seen to imply institutional endurance. It won’t be a case of structural breakdown throughout the long-term progress channel.

Last Abstract

• Structural compression inside accumulation bands, paired with sustained outflows and ETF inflows, is an indication of strategic absorption.

• Historic bear streak parallels, undervaluation metrics, and provide tightening collectively place the market nearer to exhaustion.