Bitcoin to $115K next? Here’s why it’s not wishful thinking!

• Bitcoin reclaimed $109k, its highest wick in 20 days, triggering renewed FOMO.
• Is BTC organising for an additional sharp rejection, or a breakout-fueled brief squeeze?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2.93% surge on the 2nd of July could seem modest, nevertheless it closed the day at $109,792 — its highest wick previously 20 days. Consequently, the transfer triggered a traditional bullish sign: FOMO.

On-chain information reveals that 25,812 new addresses appeared in a single day, interacting with the community for the primary time. That’s an 8.17% day-over-day leap, marking a recent month-to-month excessive.

This momentum may very well be a key catalyst.

As BTC approaches a significant provide overhang, opportunistic shorts are starting to circle.

If conviction holds, it may pave the way in which for an excellent deeper bear entice — one that might launch BTC straight into the $115k liquidation zone.

Bitcoin presses into resistance

Bitcoin’s worth motion is beginning to really feel acquainted, virtually too acquainted. After topping out at $111k, BTC is now making its second run at that degree in simply over a month, eyeing a possible breakout into worth discovery.

The primary check noticed BTC rejected onerous at $110,350, triggering a swift 10.8% drawdown over two weeks. Now, with 67% of Binance accounts skewed short, it seems late-positioned bears are betting on an identical final result.

Including to the warning, Open Curiosity is now approaching $78 billion.

Coincidentally, it’s the identical elevated degree that preceded the final cascade of liquidations when a $10 billion liquidity flush hit the market, intensifying BTC’s 10.8% slide.

Supply: CoinGlass

In the meantime, the Taker Purchase/Promote Ratio has dropped 3.71%, a transparent signal that aggressive shopping for is cooling off simply as BTC retests historic resistance.

With on-chain alerts mirroring the setup from final month, shorts seem like positioning with precision, tactically loading up for an additional leg down.

In that case, is Bitcoin’s $109k reclaim shaping as much as be a repeat setup for an additional double-digit drawdown, or the proper strain level for a violent upside squeeze?

Can bulls flip the script this time?

Traditionally, it takes a mix of FOMO-driven inflows and long-term conviction to crack main resistance in Bitcoin’s worth motion. In actual fact, that blend would possibly simply be forming once more.

On-chain exercise reveals an 8% spike in new deal with creation, alongside $407 million in BTC ETF inflows and a rising share of provide held by STHs, pointing to recent capital and renewed optimism getting into the market.

However beneath the floor, the muse appears even stronger. 

In keeping with Glassnode, Lengthy-term holders (buyers who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) now personal a report 14.7 million cash. What’s hanging is that a lot of the Bitcoin purchased throughout the $100k breakout hasn’t moved. 

Supply: Glassnode

Put collectively, this lack of distribution at native highs is compressing accessible provide into stronger palms, whereas retail-driven capital is starting to rotate again in. The setup factors to a traditional liquidity squeeze.

That $115K degree? It’s sitting on prime of practically $6 billion in short exposure. If present dynamics maintain, bulls may use this liquidity cluster as gas for the following breakout leg.