Bitcoin vs. macro pressure – Is $100K still safe amid rate-cut bets, inflation risks?

• Bitcoin has held on to the $100k-level, regardless of $35M briefly liquidations and rising macro uncertainty
• Trump’s Fed Chair feedback and robust S&P rally added gasoline to crypto’s short-term bounce

Bitcoin’s [BTC] resilience has been on full show these days. 

Regardless of a barrage of macro noise, fee lower odds, Trump’s Fed shakeup tease, and institutional reshuffling, BTC continues to be buying and selling above $100,000 on the charts. 

And in doing so, it has saved FOMO on a low simmer with out flipping into euphoria.

Such a setup screams bullish continuation. You see, we’re midway by means of 2025, and the market’s leaning onerous into the rate-cut narrative – 97.4% odds for a lower on the subsequent FOMC.

That’s an enormous vote of confidence.

Nevertheless, right here’s the factor – What if the Fed doesn’t budge? What if the CPI ticks increased and inflation throws a wrench within the plan? Mid-June might get messy.

Quite the opposite, if BTC retains its power, it might set the tone for a breakout heading into the second half of the 12 months.

Resilient labor market strengthens BTC’s macro setup

Might’s Non-Farm Payrolls report got here in strong. 139,000 jobs added vs. 125,000 anticipated, although barely beneath April’s 147,000.

The unemployment fee stayed at 4.2%, highlighting a gradual however wholesome labor market.  

Supply: Buying and selling Economics

Skeptics may argue that this sturdy employment information contradicts the concept of a rate-cut pivot. In any case, why decrease borrowing prices when financial exercise is steady?

David Hernandez, Crypto Funding Specialist at 21Shares, advised AMBCrypto,

“BTC has discovered strong footing above the significant $100,000 assist degree, with every day spent above this degree strengthening it as a basis for future upward strikes.”

He added that Bitcoin’s means to carry by means of volatility displays rising institutional conviction. Particularly with the Fed funds market pricing in near-100% odds of a pause this June.

Merely put, steady labor information means inflation pressures are manageable with out extra tightening. This offers the Fed room to pause fee hikes. In flip, it additionally encourages funding flows into risk-on belongings like Bitcoin. 

No surprises from the Fed, strong flooring for Bitcoin

Because the U.S. financial system continues to tame inflationary pressures with a string of “better-than-expected” information, it wouldn’t be stunning if the Fed holds charges regular on the upcoming assembly.

Nevertheless, what about these 97.4% odds priced in? Properly, that’s why Bitcoin’s resilience issues. 

Whereas short-term volatility is inevitable as buyers reposition forward of the Fed’s determination, BTC’s means to carry the $100k-level retains FOMO intact. It additionally validates its structural assist. 

In reality, we’ve seen this dynamic play out repeatedly over the previous two weeks.

Regardless of BlackRock lowering its publicity, Bitcoin hasn’t flinched. Holding six figures within the face of institutional distribution underscores simply how strong BTC’s macro setup actually is.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Trump’s Fed tease stirs the pot

In an surprising twist, Trump teased a brand new Fed Chair decide not too long ago, regardless of Powell’s time period working till 2026.

Supply: The Kobeissi Letter

His feedback added gasoline to the speculative hearth and helped push crypto markets up 2.5% over 24 hours – Alongside $35 million briefly liquidations.

But when that is simply hype—and never substance—there’s a danger this aid rally fades simply as quick.

If CPI stays contained and the Fed delivers the anticipated pause, this base at $100k will change into launchpad territory.

However, if the market’s pricing proves untimely, we might see a volatility shakeout earlier than the following leg.

Proper now, Bitcoin isn’t breaking down – It’s loading up. And, if the macro deck falls into place, the following breakout could not simply reclaim highs, however rewrite them.