Bitcoin: Why BTC’s road to $100K may rely on leverage, not demand

Leverage is quietly reasserting itself as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s [BTC] momentum. The current breakout triggered an aggressive brief squeeze, forcing merchants to unwind bearish positions at scale.

Based on Glassnode, this was the most important short-liquidation occasion throughout the highest 500 cryptocurrencies for the reason that tenth of October 2025.

On the chart, liquidation spikes align tightly with Bitcoin’s push to native highs.

Supply: Glassnode

Merchants worn out tens of millions briefly publicity inside a short while window, and compelled buybacks chased the value larger, reinforcing upside strain.

This conduct has been constructing since late 2025, however the depth accelerated as Bitcoin held elevated ranges as a substitute of retracing.

If present liquidations persist, Bitcoin might prolong towards the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone.

Nonetheless, if funding cools and open curiosity resets, the value could consolidate. Previous squeezes present sustainability relies on spot demand changing leverage.

OG provide pullback indicators…

OG Bitcoin Holders are now not distributing on the tempo seen earlier on this cycle.

STXO information from cash dormant for over 5 years exhibits a transparent slowdown in long-term holder spending.

Data from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs had been extremely lively into 2024, utilizing institutional demand and authorities shopping for as ideally suited exit liquidity.

Nonetheless, that conduct has shifted. Earlier within the cycle, OG spending peaked close to 3,800 BTC, then cooled to three,200 BTC, adopted by 2,200 BTC.

Supply: X

Within the brief time period, lighter OG promoting reduces overhead provide and helps value stability. Quite the opposite, in the long run, this conduct indicators conviction.

Traditionally, OG restraint aligns with accumulation phases relatively than late-cycle distribution.

Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?

The chart highlights a transparent divergence. Whales first unwind their lengthy publicity after which rotate into shorts, suggesting a deliberate shift.

In the meantime, value stays elevated at the same time as momentum fades. On the similar time, leverage is quietly rebuilding.

Taken collectively, these components tilt danger to the draw back. Whales react early as a result of they see crowded positioning and late-cycle conduct.

Furthermore, OG Bitcoin holders are now not distributing aggressively. That isolates natural promoting strain and leaves leverage as the primary driver.

Supply: X

Retail merchants usually transfer in the other way. They chase upside momentum, reacting to cost relatively than construction. As volatility expands, they have a tendency so as to add lengthy positions.

In the meantime, on‑chain information from Alphractal confirmed whales closing longs and flipping brief as Bitcoin neared $69,000. Retail merchants did the other, piling into leveraged longs.

Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected practically 20%, dropping from $69,000 to $56,000 earlier than stabilizing.

This setup factors to a possible shakeout or cooling part. If leverage unwinds, the value will possible retrace earlier than any sustainable continuation can happen.

All in all, Bitcoin’s construction is obvious as leverage, not spot demand, is driving momentum.

Brief liquidations lifted the value, whereas OG promoting slowed and whales turned defensive. This tightens provide however raises fragility.

Due to this fact, upside stays susceptible. Sustainable positive aspects require spot demand to switch leverage. Till then, volatility danger stays elevated, and any additional extension stays uncovered to a corrective reset.

Last Ideas

• Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with brief liquidations lifting value whereas spot demand stays secondary, growing the chance of volatility-driven pullbacks.
• Sensible cash is popping cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders sluggish promoting, signaling tighter provide however a fragile rally except spot patrons step in.