Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index hits 4-year high – Will 2020’s trend repeat?

• BTC’s ‘excessive greed’ hit 2020 highs, which preceded a 50% value pullback. 
• Markets had been pricing extremely the probability of BTC hovering above $100K. 

Bitcoin’s [BTC] $100K goal expectation has pushed the market to 2020’s ‘excessive greed’ stage, which preceded a 50% value pullback. 

In line with CryptoQuant information, BTC’s Concern and Greed Index (FGI) hit a 4.5-year excessive of 94. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

Curiously, the present development mirrored the 2020 sample. The ‘excessive greed’ stage of 94 was hit in November 2020.

Three months later (February 2021), BTC declined by 20% and prolonged its decline to 50% by mid-2021. However earlier than the downside, it pumped 250% in three months. 

Markets pricing above $100K

It’s additionally price noting that after the 250% decline in H1 2021, BTC rallied 120% to hit a cycle prime of $69K in H2 2021. 

Maybe that is why most cycle analysts anticipate a probable cool-off in early or late 2025. Certainly one of them, Alex Kruger, reiterated the identical outlook and said, 

“In 2021, the highest indicators began to roll in February.” 

Will the sample affect BTC between now and early or late 2025? 

Supply: Kalshi

As of the time of writing, prediction markets had been pricing BTC hovering above $100K. In line with Kalshi, the odds of BTC hitting $100K or $150K by the tip of the yr stood at 81% and 10%. 

On its half, the asset supervisor VanEck projected that the cryptocurrency may hit a cycle excessive of $180K.

The agency cited the pro-BTC regulatory atmosphere and post-2020 election section of +10% funding charges. A part of its mid-November BTC report learn, 

“We anticipate one other interval of excessive efficiency, harking back to the post-2020 election section when sustained 10%+ funding charges drove a 260% achieve over 186 days. Our $180k value goal stays believable.” 

Nevertheless, CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Younger Ju projected a conservative cycle excessive of $141K and a 2024 goal of $112K based mostly on the realized cap valuation.

He famous that the market was not but overheated. In 2020 and 2021, BTC topped after tapping the higher band of the realized cap. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

In brief, the market anticipated BTC to soar above $100K, as illustrated by the elevated ‘excessive greed’ stage. Nevertheless, any potential prime sign may grow to be evident in early 2025.