Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Bernstein predicts $150K in 2026

The present drawdown has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin[BTC] projection of hitting $150K by the top of 2026.

In a current word to shoppers, the analysts on the analysis and brokerage agency, led by Gautam Chhugani, mentioned the present decline was the ‘weakest’ BTC bear case to this point. 

“What we’re experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its historical past”

In contrast to previous bear markets, which have been pushed by blow-ups (the FTX implosion in 2022), hidden leverage, and different systemic dangers, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts added. 

Chhugani blamed the present weak point on a ‘manufactured disaster of confidence’ pushed by followers of the 4-year cycle. The analysts sarcastically wrote, 

“When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin neighborhood manufactures a self-imposed disaster of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is again once more to write down an obituary. Time stays a flat circle on Bitcoin.”

From its cycle peak of $126K in October, Bitcoin fell to $60K in early February, marking a 52% decline. At press time, it had barely recovered to $69K. 

The previous 5 BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% drawdown, with the least being 72%. That might make a 52% decline in 2026, certainly, the ‘weakest’. 

Nonetheless, if it have been to match the previous developments, that will indicate an additional draw back danger to $35.2K. Put otherwise, the present stage was on the midway level of a typical bear-market pullback.  

Bernstein downplays quantum fears

On quantum computing fears, which is among the main catalysts cited by bear analysts, Bernstein mentioned that it was not a direct risk. 

The analysts acknowledged quantum danger as a long-term risk, including that each one important digital techniques face related danger and can transition to quantum-resistant upgrades collectively. This stance was much like that of Grayscale and Technique’s Michael Saylor. 

Is an prolonged BTC drop nonetheless seemingly?

Even so, Bitcoin was not out of the woods simply but. In line with Glassnode, on the present $70K, the unrealized loss interprets to 16% of the market cap, echoing an early bear-market construction for the 2022 cycle.

The loss hit 24% when BTC dropped to $60K, with Glassnode including that, 

“This locations the market in an intense bear regime, although nonetheless under excessive capitulation phases seen above 50%, suggesting a capitulation course of is underway.”

Supply: Glassnode

Bitfinex analysts, then again, projected a sideways construction for BTC throughout the  $60K and $74K value vary for some time. 

“The market is prone to consolidate right here ($60K-$74K) because it digests losses and resets positioning, forward of clearer alerts on whether or not this vary turns into a base for restoration or a pause earlier than additional draw back.”

Supply: Bitfinex

Remaining Ideas

• Bernstein analysts imagine BTC will nonetheless make a brand new all-time excessive of $150K in 2026, calling the $60K drop the ‘weakest’ bear market. 
• Nonetheless, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts remained cautious, warning that additional draw back danger couldn’t be overruled.