4 years of Bitcoin winning – Here’s why 2021 was the last alt season!

The 2025 cycle has launched some notable market divergences.

Traditionally, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen robust rallies after every halving, with the primary 4 post-halving cycles pushed by provide shortage and demand imbalance. Nonetheless, 2025 broke that development, with BTC closing the yr down 6%.

The same divergence is displaying up in altcoins. TOTAL3 (market cap ex- BTC and ETH) has printed its fourth straight pink yr versus Bitcoin, successfully capping an “altcoin season” that’s been fading for 4 years.

Supply: TradingView (TOTAL3/BTC)

That divergence naturally factors in direction of BTC’s rising market affect.

Technically, this isn’t a stretch. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has put in 4 consecutive uptrends, climbing from roughly 40% in 2022 to above 60% in 2025. That’s a strong 100% achieve in market cap, roughly $900 billion added.

Notably, over the identical interval, complete market cap grew to $1.11 trillion, which means practically 80% of that new capital landed in BTC, highlighting its rising affect. On this context, is an altseason actually a factor of the previous?

The 2021 rally looking back – Key altcoin market indicators

Trying again, the 2021 cycle was a textbook altcoin season.

On the 12-month chart, BTC’s market cap closed the yr up 64%, breaking by the historic $1 trillion-milestone. And but, TOTAL3 (market cap ex-BTC and ETH) utterly outpaced it, rallying a staggering 541%.

The end result? The Altcoin Season Index peaked, signaling a full-blown altseason, with capital clearly rotating into the broader alt market. Since then, nevertheless, BTC has taken management. The query is – What actually modified?

Supply: TradingView (TOTAL3)

The reply is straightforward – Altcoin funding rates have spiked.

Merely out, leveraged longs are overcrowded, and whereas that may sound bullish, it’s truly trapped altcoins in a unstable loop. Even a small sideways transfer can set off a cascade of liquidations.

Add rising BTC.D, and alts have turn into extremely weak to sharp swings. On this context, the rising divergence between Bitcoin and alts isn’t a fluke. As a substitute, it reveals why 2021 was in all probability the final actual “altcoin season.”

Last Ideas

• Altcoin funding charges have spiked, creating overcrowded longs that entice altcoins in a unstable loop.
• Rising Bitcoin dominance has funneled capital in direction of BTC, making alts weak and explaining why 2021 was doubtless the final true “altcoin season.”