Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $962M Bitcoin despite MSCI pressure – Why?

Michael Saylor’s Technique made a large and stunning Bitcoin buy within the final 24 hours, regardless of the overhang of the MSCI index exclusion overview set for mid-January. 

On 08 December, the agency announced that it had bought 10,624 BTC, price $962.7 million, at a mean value of $90.6k. 

Though the replace was anticipated, following Saylor’s typical bid sign of “orange dots” over the weekend, the large scale of the practically $1 billion BTC acquisition got here as a shock. 

In reality, on 6 December, the predictions market projected solely a 26% probability of one other 1000 BTC or extra BTC bid by Technique this week. 

The most recent 10.6k BTC purchase is the second-largest scoop of H2 2025, bringing its general stash to 660,624 BTC. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

For a agency below index exclusion danger after not too long ago admitting to probably promoting BTC if the so-called mNAV dips beneath 1, this raises key questions. 

Is the MSCI index overhang over? Are BTC promoting plans discarded? 

MSCI danger rises, however BTC sell-off odds fade

For the primary query, the danger of being delisted from the index remains to be very excessive, in keeping with Polymarket.

On the time of writing, betters on the platform have been pricing a 73% probability of such an consequence by Q1 2026, reinforcing underlying jitters regardless of the practically $1 billion BTC purchase. 

Supply: Polymarket

Final week, reports surfaced that Michael Saylor met with the MSCI crew relating to the exclusion subject and sought to steer them to not take away his agency from the membership. 

He has maintained that such an exclusion “gained’t make any distinction.” Quite the opposite, JPMorgan analysts have warned of over $8 billion in outflows if MSCI delists it. 

Within the occasion of a possible Technique BTC dump if mNAV dips beneath 1, such an consequence is perhaps comparatively low.

In reality, in Q1 2026, the chances of such an consequence was beneath 10%. Additional in H1 2026, the chances of promoting BTC have been 17%, suggesting that market members don’t anticipate Technique to make such a transfer at the moment. 

Supply: Polymarket

Right here, it’s price mentioning that the agency not too long ago secured over $1.4 billion and established a fund to cowl the obligations tied to dividends linked to its big range of most popular shares it makes use of to fund BTC buys. 

The remainder of its +$8 billion debt will start maturing in 2028, giving it ample time to manoeuvre. Maybe, this may clarify the low expectations for the Technique BTC dump within the mid-term.  

Nonetheless, any information of Technique dumping BTC would decimate the market, RIA Advisors Portfolio Supervisor, Michael Lebowitz warned. He cautioned, 

“If there’s a headline that claims Technique offered, even when it’s three Bitcoin, I believe after every thing Michael Saylor has mentioned about he’s by no means promoting a dime, persons are going to begin to query the entire Bitcoin commerce.”

Closing Ideas

• Michael Saylor made a shock $962 million BTC buy, elevating hopes that the MSCI overhang could quickly evaporate. 
• Though the MSCI danger remains to be excessive, the chances of a BTC dump could also be comparatively low.