ETFs’ impact on Bitcoin – Is the classic bull-bear cycle over?

• Bitcoin’s newest cycle shares an in depth resemblance with its 2021 and 2017 cycles
• Nonetheless, ETFs and establishments could scale back loopy rallies and painful crashes

The standard bull-bear Bitcoin [BTC] cycle could also be going through a structural shift, based on DeFi analytics platform Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock). 

Throughout earlier cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTH) accrued throughout bear markets and unloaded later throughout bull runs (principally halving). This helped kind the everyday bowl-shaped (purple) patterns on the crypto’s on-chain charts. 

Supply: Sentora/X

Nonetheless, the present cycle has been completely different and complicated even to seasoned BTC cycle analysts, noted the analytics agency. 

“This time, nonetheless, the script is completely different: distribution kicked off a lot earlier, has unfolded in a slower, stop-start trend, and exhibits not one of the clear, symmetrical rhythm we’ve come to count on.”

Cycle is on monitor, however volatility retains falling

Most analysts have linked the perceived cycle adjustments to a higher variety of establishments embracing BTC. Particularly after the approval of U.S Spot ETFs in early 2024.

In truth, CryptoQuant founder Ji Younger Ju shared the same outlook after making a mistaken bear market name in early 2025, just for BTC to hit a brand new all-time excessive two months later. 

He said,

“It feels prefer it’s time to throw out that cycle principle. New liquidity sources and quantity have gotten extra unsure, signalling a transition because the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi.”

Regardless of the aforementioned adjustments in demand and provide dynamics, the current cycle (epoch 5) has been intently trailing the third (blue) and fourth (inexperienced) cycles. Price stating, nonetheless, that it barely diverged in January 2025. 

Supply: Glassnode

For the reason that final April halving, Bitcoin has rallied by over 70%, rising from $63k to over $109k. Nonetheless, over the identical interval, the previous cycles noticed a lot larger returns.

Within the 2020-2021 cycle (epoch 4), BTC pumped by 354% whereas in 2017 (epoch 3, blue), the asset gained by over 500%. 

When the returns had been zoomed out on a compounded annual development fee (CAGR) foundation, it revealed a gradual decline. The 4-year BTC cycle CAGR dropped from over 850% in 2015 to about 30% in Could 2025. 

Briefly, annual investor returns have shrunk over time – A transfer some have linked to BTC’s “asset maturity” standing as TradFi embraces it. This thesis may also be supported by easing volatility (value swings).

Supply: The Block

For the reason that debut of U.S Spot ETFs, annualized BTC volatility (30-day) has dropped from 78% to 35% – An indication that the asset turned comparatively much less unstable from early 2024. 

When zoomed out from 2017, its volatility has been trending southwards, indicating that BTC has turn out to be extra mature. Additional adoption by establishments could make it much more like shares or gold.  

Going ahead, BTC’s large upside potential could diminish. Regardless of it being the most effective asset on a risk-adjusted foundation, in comparison with most conventional investments.