Bitcoin’s price could be hit by Venezuela’s 3% BTC reserve: Here’s how

Venezuela is sitting on as many as 600,000 Bitcoin [BTC]. With the seize of President Nicolas Maduro, if the U.S. seizes the cash, they’d doubtless be frozen in authorized battles for years.

Roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s complete provide might be successfully taken out of circulation and not using a single commerce going down.

For an asset with restricted provide, that is essential.

One among crypto’s largest reserves

The markets are fixated on Venezuela’s huge oil wealth, however right here’s a glance between the traces. The regime was constructing a Bitcoin “shadow reserve.”

Starting in 2018 with sanctions, Venezuela allegedly used gold swaps, pressured oil-for-USDT settlements, and seized mining operations to build up crypto.

Gold from the Orinoco Mining Arc was liquidated, and, by some estimates, practically $2 billion was transformed into Bitcoin at costs close to $5,000 (round 400,000 BTC.)

Supply: X

Because the state-backed “Petro” failed, USDT turned a workaround for oil gross sales earlier than being quietly washed into Bitcoin to keep away from Tether’s freeze danger.

Add later inflows, and estimates now place Venezuela’s holdings at 600,000-660,000 BTC, price over $60 billion.

Why this adjustments the BTC market

To know the influence, evaluate this to Germany’s 2024 sale of roughly 50,000 BTC. That liquidation precipitated a 15-20% correction and weeks of bearishness.

Venezuela’s stash is 12 occasions bigger.

At this scale, it rivals MicroStrategy [MSTR] and sits just under BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. It’s additionally practically double the U.S. authorities’s identified Bitcoin holdings.

If the U.S. locks up these cash, roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s circulating provide might disappear from the market with out being bought.

Why a fireplace sale is unlikely

The most certainly end result is a freeze. Authorized battles, forfeiture claims, and creditor disputes might lock these cash in escrow for years.

A strategic reserve can be believable, particularly given President Donald Trump’s public openness to holding confiscated Bitcoin as a long-term asset.

A speedy liquidation stays the least doubtless choice. Politically and strategically, dumping such a lot of Bitcoin would wreck stability and the broader “Bitcoin reserve” narrative.

Within the quick time period…

Uncertainty might trigger huge strikes, however the numbers look calm. There aren’t any indicators of a surge in panic promoting, with related patterns seen throughout current geopolitical conflicts.

BTC is rising to be resistant to macroeconomic occasions.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Long run, a pressured lock-up of 600,000 BTC is bullish. Decreased liquid provide favors massive LTHs and makes a stronger case for Bitcoin’s shortage narrative within the new 12 months.

Ultimate Ideas

• A possible 600,000 BTC freeze might lock 3% of Bitcoin’s provide.
• With no panic promoting seen, the market seems to view this shock as bullish.