Bitcoin eyes $100K amid market caution – Here’s why it makes sense!

As January attracts to an in depth, volatility is step by step selecting up. 

On the macro aspect, two key occasions are unfolding – First, the Supreme Court docket tariff ruling and second, the U.S. employment information. Collectively, these occasions will set the stage for a probably turbulent week for risk-assets.

That mentioned, the timing couldn’t be higher for Bitcoin [BTC]. BTC’s 30-day Open Curiosity (OI) has fallen to its lowest ranges since 2022, serving as a key sign of how these macro occasions can affect Bitcoin’s subsequent transfer.

Supply: CryptoQuant

The largest takeaway? The market isn’t operating on “blind optimism.”

Notably, that’s a giant shift from This fall, when BTC’s OI overheated to $94 billion. This time round, the OI is below management, and the positioning reveals up available in the market pricing as there’s only a 13% likelihood of a fee minimize within the upcoming FOMC.

In brief, the market is likely to be leaning in the direction of warning fairly than blind optimism. 

From a technical standpoint, with a heavy macro week forward, this might assist forestall one other market crash. Nonetheless, for Bitcoin, it may really create the situations ripe for a extra measured transfer in the direction of six figures.

Macro FUD mounts, however Bitcoin may discover a window for a rally

Bitcoin’s early 2026 momentum hasn’t sparked FOMO simply but. 

On the institutional aspect, Bitcoin ETFs are nonetheless seeing outflows, with the newest totaling $400 million. In the meantime, the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) was within the crimson at press time. In brief, the demand from U.S. traders stays muted.

The weakening labor market may shift the dynamics although. In truth, information revealed that during the last 12 months, job openings have declined by 885k – Dragging the ratio of vacancies to unemployed employees right down to 0.91.

Supply: Kobeissi Letter

In opposition to that backdrop, the market pricing solely a 13% likelihood of a fee minimize is likely to be overly cautious. As an alternative, with U.S unemployment steadily rising, a fee minimize feels more and more priced in fairly than out.

Notably, that is the place BTC’s cooling metrics come into focus. With the absence of “blind optimism,” the present positioning may really work in Bitcoin’s favor, organising a cleaner path in the direction of a extra sustainable rally.

In the meantime, BTC has been holding above the $85k-level regardless of a comfortable institutional bid – An indication of underlying conviction. If this development holds, a transfer in the direction of the $100k-level by the primary week of February wouldn’t be out of attain.

Last Ideas

• With tariff dangers, comfortable labor information, and low rate-cut expectations, markets stay cautious.
• Bitcoin is holding above $85k, opening the door for a measured push in the direction of the $100k-level if situations maintain.