Government shutdown, CPI, and extreme fear – Can Bitcoin hold $60K?

The market proper now could be shifting on anticipation, not motion.

You possibly can see it in threat belongings this cycle. Not like previous crashes, which adopted actual shocks, like tariffs, shutdowns, or real-time geopolitical occasions, traders right now appear decided to get forward of the danger earlier than it even hits.

For example, even earlier than an official authorities shutdown is introduced, Polymarket is exhibiting the percentages of 1 taking place. At press time, they have been at 96%, clearly placing Bitcoin [BTC] on edge as merchants watch each macro sign intently.

Supply: Polymarket

On this context, the upcoming Client Worth Index (CPI) report, set for launch on 13 February at 8:00 AM E.T., has taken on added significance, with Wall Avenue expecting the CPI to drop from 2.7% to 2.5%.

Naturally, this places Bitcoin’s $65k flooring below the microscope. 

Now, the latest U.S. jobs report got here in stronger than anticipated and this has already capped the “expectations” for March FOMC fee cuts. So, going into the CPI launch, merchants are on edge, realizing that even small deviations may set off sharp strikes in Bitcoin.

In keeping with AMBCrypto, the timing couldn’t be worse. 

Sentiment is already fragile. The crypto Fear and Greed Index not too long ago hit an all-time low of 5, even decrease than through the COVID crash, elevating questions on whether or not Bitcoin’s $65k -loor thesis can truly maintain.

Normal Chartered’s Bitcoin forecast features consideration

Main gamers are scaling again their Bitcoin forecasts too. 

Normal Chartered, for instance, recently cut its end-2026 target from $150k to $100k – Its second discount in three months. The larger takeaway is its warning of a BTC correction, doubtlessly all the best way all the way down to $50k.

At first look, that may sound excessive. Bitcoin continues to be 23% above that stage. Nevertheless, whenever you layer within the newest CryptoQuant metrics, the decision begins to look much less like “hypothesis,” and extra like a situation grounded in knowledge.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Based mostly on the numbers, $55k marks Bitcoin’s realized worth – A stage traditionally tied to market bottoms. In previous cycles, BTC has traded 24-30% beneath this stage earlier than stabilizing. Right now, it sits about 18% above it.

In the meantime, Normal Chartered constructed its $50k thesis round a weaker macro backdrop and delayed Fed fee cuts as key dangers. It factored in that Bitcoin has already dropped over 40%, whereas investors have pulled almost $8 billion from U.S Spot ETFs.

Add to that the FUD round a authorities shutdown, the upcoming CPI report, and an ultra-cautious market, and it’s simple to see why the $50k flooring is on the radar, placing Bitcoin’s present help ranges below strain.

Closing Ideas

• Anticipation of a authorities shutdown, the CPI report, and a powerful jobs report are placing Bitcoin’s $60k flooring below strain.
• With BTC down over 40% from its October peak and investor outflows from Spot ETFs, the financial institution’s $50k flooring thesis is gaining consideration.