Bitcoin eyes ‘Uptober’ rally despite extreme fear levels

The Crypto Concern and Greed Index has slipped to its lowest degree since March, elevating contemporary considerations over investor confidence even as Bitcoin and Ethereum try a restoration.

Data shared by CryptoQuant analyst JA Maarturn on Sept. 29 confirmed sentiment falling from a impartial 40 in August to an excessive worry degree of 28. The index final touched this vary in March, when Bitcoin traded round $80,000.

In the meantime, the sharp deterioration in sentiment coincided with heavy sell-offs in main belongings. Each Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped under key psychological ranges of $110,000 and $4,000 final week, deepening the sense of uncertainty.

But the retreat proved short-lived. As of press time, Bitcoin worth has recovered $114,000 and Ethereum traded over $4,100, suggesting that panic promoting has given strategy to a extra balanced market.

Market backside?

Asset supervisor Bitwise argued that the fear-driven backdrop may characterize a bottoming section.

It acknowledged:

“Final week, sentiment has twice reached ;excessive worry’ ranges on an intraday foundation, but bitcoin has proven relative resilience, holding round ~$108k – a degree that additionally aligns with the short-term holder value foundation – this seems to offer a robust help for bitcoin proper now as sellers are more and more exhausted.”

The agency additional identified that Bitcoin was nonetheless up practically 3.7% in September regardless of final week’s turbulence. That is notable contemplating September is traditionally the weakest month of the yr for the highest crypto.

In distinction, the ultimate quarter usually delivers robust positive factors, with November repeatedly rating as Bitcoin’s most worthwhile month.

In keeping with Bitwise, this historic sample makes present weak spot look extra like a possibility than a warning signal.

Data from Glassnode helps the case, exhibiting that short-term holders are actually realizing web losses, a situation that has traditionally marked reset factors earlier than renewed accumulation. Durations of capitulation, the place latest consumers promote at a loss, have usually offered the inspiration for longer-term rallies.

Bitcoin prepares for Uptober

Contemplating the flagship digital asset worth resilience, crypto buying and selling agency QCP posited that BTC merchants are optimistic of an “Uptober” rally.

In keeping with the agency, gradual optimism has returned to the perpetual futures market, the place leveraged longs have re-entered after final week’s liquidations.

QCP acknowledged that Bitcoin open curiosity has risen from $42.8 billion to $43.6 billion. On the similar time, funding charges stay optimistic and positioning on platforms like Hyperliquid has swung decisively again towards the lengthy facet.

Nevertheless, the agency warned {that a} sustained uptrend will solely be confirmed if BTC clears the $115,000 threshold. It added:

“Choices markets replicate this hesitation, with put skew and OI in BTC and ETH slowly normalizing as merchants rebuild conviction.”

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