Here’s why Bitcoin price could rise above $100,000
Bitcoin’s temporary climb above $97,000 over the previous day prolonged a run that means the underlying mechanics sign a structural shift in how capital is interacting with the asset class.
In response to CryptoSlate information, BTC reached a peak of $97,860, its highest worth degree since final November. This worth efficiency continues the flagship digital asset’s sturdy begin to the 12 months, which has pulled the broader crypto market alongside.
Nevertheless, the upward worth motion was not occurring in a speculative vacuum. As an alternative, it’s supported by key on-chain metrics that paint an image of renewed institutional urge for food clashing with a provide aspect that has all of a sudden stopped promoting.
Right here, CryptoSlate, citing on-chain information, explains why Bitcoin is at the moment in an uptrend.
Bitcoin’s spot bid and whale dominance
Probably the most direct driver behind the value appreciation was a pointy re-acceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Information from Coinperps confirmed that the 12 Bitcoin ETF merchandise have seen inflows of greater than $1.5 billion in the final two days alone.
These usually are not simply huge numbers as a result of they matter mechanically.
Submit-halving, Bitcoin’s new issuance is roughly 450 BTC per day. At present costs, this represents a comparatively small greenback determine in contrast with the sort of demand implied by high-inflow ETF days.
ETF flows usually are not the one supply of spot shopping for, and they don’t map 1:1 to instant “market buys” in each case. But, they’re a extremely seen, regulated conduit that may rapidly pull incremental demand into the market.
That is notably efficient when institutional allocators rebalance or when broader “risk-on” flows return to monetary markets.
This dynamic explains why ETF circulation information has grow to be a each day macro-like sign for the crypto sector. It helps clarify why Bitcoin can rise even when crypto-native narratives are quiet.
Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this narrative of spot-led energy. In response to the agency’s indicators, the transfer was not initially pushed by leverage however by real demand for the underlying asset.
CryptoQuant’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD started turning constructive round $86,000, signaling elevated Taker Purchase dominance. This metric signifies that market purchase quantity constantly outweighed promote quantity nicely earlier than the value reached its present highs.
Moreover, the standard of this shopping for was distinct. Spot Common Order Dimension flashed “Whale Orders” throughout the identical interval. This means the purchase quantity was pushed by bigger entities fairly than dispersed retail hypothesis.
These buyers stepped in to take the lead on this rally by spot purchases fairly than counting on fragile leverage.
Revenue-taking slows
The second leg of the transfer is outlined by the absence of a adverse drive: relentless profit-taking.
Glassnode’s latest market notes present realized revenue falling sharply from the elevated ranges seen earlier within the fourth quarter.
In response to the agency, BTC’s 7-day transferring common of realized revenue for long-term holders dropped to roughly $183.8 million per day. That is down considerably from ranges above $1 billion per day in late 2025.
That issues as a result of Bitcoin rallies don’t solely require patrons. In addition they require fewer keen sellers.
When profit-taking depth fades, even average demand can push the value larger as a result of the market is just not always being “refilled” with distribution from holders locking in features.
Notably, this reluctance to promote is additional evidenced by the Worth Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator. This metric calculates the variety of days bitcoins remained inactive earlier than being moved, weighted by the quantity of BTC transferred.
A low worth signifies that youthful cash are being moved, whereas a excessive worth signifies that older, long-held cash are being spent.
At present, the VDD stands at roughly 0.53 as of January 2026, a traditionally low degree. This implies that the BTC being transferred on the community is comparatively younger, implying that older cash stay untouched.
Previous cycles recommend {that a} rising Bitcoin worth paired with a muted VDD studying indicators a strong enlargement. On this atmosphere, incoming demand doesn’t have to chew by a wall of structural promoting, permitting bids to carry costs extra effectively.
Subsequently, the present breakout above resistance is supported by the inactivity of long-term holders. This reinforces the concept actual market energy is driving the asset fairly than a fragile rebound fueled by short-term hypothesis.
Derivatives as an accelerant
The third driver is a basic accelerant: derivatives positioning.
As Bitcoin pushed upward, crypto market protection tracked a wave of quick liquidations. These are compelled buybacks by merchants betting towards the transfer. These occasions can create abrupt “air pockets” as stops are hit and liquidations cascade.
Certainly, information from Glassnode confirmed that the most recent transfer triggered the most important quick liquidation occasion since Oct. 10 throughout the highest 500 cryptocurrencies.
Nevertheless, past the headline liquidation tally, the extra structural shift could have been what occurred to choices.
Glassnode additionally famous that the market noticed its largest-ever choices open curiosity reset across the late-December expiry, with open curiosity dropping from 579,258 BTC to 316,472 BTC. This represents a discount of greater than 45%.
For market observers, choices open curiosity is essential as a result of it could possibly change how market makers hedge threat.
Glassnode additionally flagged that supplier gamma was quick within the ~$95,000–$104,000 zone. This setup can amplify upside as soon as worth begins rising, as hedging flows align with the transfer fairly than dampen it.
Put merely, the rally not solely attracted new patrons. It additionally compelled shopping for (by liquidations and hedging habits) as soon as key ranges have been challenged.
In the meantime, CryptoQuant information confirms that futures participation arrived later within the sequence and was dominated by retail exercise.
In response to the agency, BTC’s Futures Taker Purchase Quantity turned constructive round $91,400, which was a bit later than the spot bid.
Nonetheless, it aligned with the highest crypto’s upward development and confirmed the market’s energy.
Macro and coverage tailwinds
Bitcoin doesn’t commerce in a vacuum, and macro inputs provided a friendlier backdrop this week.
The newest US CPI launch confirmed headline inflation at 2.7% year-over-year in December, with core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year. On a month-to-month foundation, headline CPI was 0.3% (seasonally adjusted).
Markets usually translate this right into a easy query: Does inflation stress hold actual yields elevated and monetary circumstances tight, or does it permit threat urge for food to increase?
Actual yields stay traditionally significant (round 1.83% on the US 10-year TIPS yield in latest readings), however a softer inflation impulse can cut back the percentages of additional tightening shocks and assist high-beta belongings.
Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro varies by regime. Nevertheless, in intervals the place crypto trades as a “risk-on” proxy, much less inflation anxiousness could be sufficient to assist a rebound, particularly when spot flows and positioning align.
In the meantime, a quieter contributor is the evolving US coverage dialog round crypto market construction.
US lawmakers body the CLARITY Act as an vital piece of laws that creates clearer boundaries between companies and reduces “regulation-by-enforcement” dynamics.
Whereas the laws has drawn completely different reactions from market stakeholders, business gamers agree that the invoice may very well be constructive for BTC by making a friendlier regime that compresses the danger premium.
Can Bitcoin proceed the run?
The query now could be whether or not Bitcoin can convert this rebound into sustained upward momentum.
Glassnode highlights the Quick-Time period Holder (STH) value foundation round ~$99,100 as a key threshold. The logic is easy. When latest patrons are at breakeven or revenue, they’re much less more likely to promote defensively on small pullbacks, and momentum merchants achieve confidence.
On the similar time, Bitcoin is coming into an overhead provide zone the place many patrons’ value bases cluster. Glassnode flags a broad overhead vary of roughly $92,100 to $117,400.
This suggests that as worth strikes larger, it could repeatedly encounter cohorts desperate to promote into energy close to breakeven.
That creates two believable paths. In a continuation state of affairs, if ETF inflows stay constantly constructive and the value reclaims ~$99,000, the market can grind larger by provide as sellers are absorbed (particularly if derivatives hedging stays supportive).
In a failure state of affairs, if worth repeatedly rejects beneath the STH value foundation and macro turns tighter by way of larger actual yields, the transfer dangers wanting like one other vary rally that exhausts as overhead provide reappears.
