Betting against Ethereum ETF: How a May rejection could benefit Bitcoin

• Ethereum ETF approval odds have dropped under 25% in Polymarket. 
• Vijay Boyapati forecasts ETH ETF Could rejection may gain advantage BTC.

The general market is leaning towards a potential US spot Ethereum [ETH] ETF functions rejection in Could.

In line with the prediction markets platform, Polymarket, the bets for ETH ETF Could approval have dropped 68% and stood at a 24% probability at press time. 

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who appropriately predicted the US spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETF approval, have echoed Polymarket’s sentiment. 

In a latest post on X, Seyffart highlighted SEC’s “silence” and “no suggestions” to latest ETH ETF filings as “violence” to shoppers.

“Eric mentioned “Silence is Violence” on a consumer name final week regarding the #ethereum ETFs and I cherished it.” 

Seyffart was reacting to Balchunas’ assertion that SEC wasn’t giving “essential suggestions” even throughout in-person conferences. This meant that odds for Could approval had been nonetheless low. 

Will BTC profit from Ethereum ETF Could rejection?

With Could quick approaching and approval odds seeming elusive, Vijay Boyapati, commentator and writer of “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin,” claimed that, 

“All the new cash that flowed into ETH due to ETF hopium goes to return into Bitcoin as soon as the Ethereum ETFs are all rejected.” 

For Boyapati’s prediction to occur, ETH market dominance might want to drop significantly as BTC’s surge. 

In line with CoinMarketCap, BTC’s market dominance was 52.4% on the time of writing, primarily attributable to robust ETF flows prior to now three months. ETH’s market dominance stood at 16.5%. 

Ought to Boyapati’s thesis be confirmed, ETH market dominance might slip under 16% or 15% because the market re-adjusts to ETH ETF rejection in Could. In that case, the capital rotation might induce BTC momentum.

Within the meantime, ETH was above an important weekly bearish order block (3.2K—3.5K). It was consolidating across the Q1 2022 native high. A droop under 3.2K might trigger bears to overwhelm the market, particularly if ETH ETF functions are rejected.