Is Bitcoin still positioned for $80K as March CPI hits 3.3%? Assessing…
The March CPI print got here in. Nevertheless, market response exhibits that markets already priced within the transfer.
For context, the Client Worth Index launched by the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed inflation rising to three.3%, barely beneath the three.4% forecast.
In the meantime, core CPI additionally eased in at 2.6%, just below the anticipated 2.7%. Nonetheless, regardless of the “softer-than-expected” readings, inflation is now at its highest degree since Might 2024.
Naturally, the market rapidly repriced expectations, pushing fee cuts for 2026 additional out.
And but, Bitcoin [BTC], which closed the day up 1.63%, is making one other try at breaking the cussed $75k resistance, suggesting danger urge for food remains to be holding up regardless of the geopolitical strain.
From a macro perspective, the inflation transfer wasn’t a shock both.
March kicked off with escalating tensions in West Asia, which rapidly triggered an oil provide shock. Oil costs surged above $112 per barrel, feeding straight into energy-driven inflation pressures and lifting CPI expectations effectively forward of the particular launch.
On this context, the “softer-than-expected” CPI readings primarily mirror markets already pricing within the energy-driven inflation transfer quite than reacting to new info.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s resilience subsequently reinforces the identical message. Worth motion hasn’t proven any actual post-CPI shock.
That raises the query: does the market nonetheless underprice macro danger, or does Bitcoin’s regular bid mirror an rising “safe-haven” narrative in actual time?
Bitcoin absorbs volatility, squeezes shorts, and sees gold weaken
Heading into the CPI launch, Bitcoin’s value motion had already set the stage for liquidity sweeps.
Nevertheless, Coinglass information exhibits Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidations hit $52.52 million, with 80.63% coming from quick positions getting squeezed.
This quick cascade additional reinforces the concept that the CPI print was already priced in, with bears taking the majority of the hit quite than any contemporary directional shock.
From a technical standpoint, this resilience additionally aligns with current commentary from Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Analysis Strategist at 21Shares, in an announcement to AMBCrypto.
He highlighted that the present value construction nonetheless helps upside continuation, with a transfer towards $80k remaining a believable state of affairs.
The $73k–$75k zone is the subsequent key goal. If Bitcoin breaks above it, anticipate a brief interval of consolidation earlier than a transfer towards $80k.
He continued,
If the Readability Act passes, the setup might prolong additional, with $100k BTC and a $3–$3.2 trillion whole crypto market cap by the tip of Q2—roughly a 30–35% upside from present ranges.
Backing this view, he pointed to strong ETF inflows, rising Readability Act approval odds on Polymarket close to 60%, and continued Bitcoin accumulation by Technique’s STRC demand, which allows shopping for at roughly six occasions the day by day mining provide.
Nevertheless, AMBCrypto notes that one other key catalyst can also be in play.
Notably, Bitcoin’s response to the CPI didn’t present that markets have been underpricing macro dangers.
As an alternative, XAU/BTC, which is down 7.41% thus far this week, highlights a transparent shift in relative power between gold and Bitcoin, serving to clarify why value motion held agency regardless of rising inflation.
From a rotational perspective, this setup reinforces Matt Mena’s $80k Bitcoin thesis.
Remaining Abstract
- CPI got here in largely as anticipated, with Bitcoin displaying no actual post-print shock.
- Rotation from gold into Bitcoin, alongside sturdy ETF inflows and bullish construction, reinforces the case for continued BTC upside towards $80k.
