Is BitMine pushing its Ethereum thesis too far after $6 billion hit?

For months, Tom Lee’s BitMine was recognized for getting Ethereum, it doesn’t matter what.

The corporate constructed a repute as probably the most aggressive company holder of ETH, betting closely on Lee’s thought of an Ethereum supercycle.

Now, that guess is being examined.

After a 22.6% drop, BitMine’s Ethereum portfolio has fallen to about $9.04 billion in worth.

This marks a pointy reversal from late 2025, forcing severe questions.

Will this downturn merely validate Tom Lee’s long-term conviction, or does it sign that BitMine has pushed its treasury technique too far?

BitMine’s losses analysed

BitMine’s core downside is its huge guess on Ethereum [ETH].

The corporate now holds 4,031,739 ETH, making it one of many largest ETH holders on this planet.

Whilst costs had been falling, Tom Lee stored shopping for. Simply final week, BitMine added 40,000 ETH at a mean worth of $2,220.

The market, nonetheless, moved in the other way.

Ethereum has dropped greater than 28% over the previous month, together with about 7% in simply sooner or later, as per CoinMarketCap.

Due to this, BitMine is now sitting on over $6 billion in unrealized losses on its Ethereum holdings alone.

Losses throughout the board

Evidently, the difficulty goes past Ethereum.

BitMine additionally holds 11,902 Bitcoin [BTC] and 89,452,910 Solana [SOL], and falling costs throughout the crypto market have dragged these property down as effectively.

Compelled liquidations in derivatives markets made the sell-off worse.

When Ethereum broke under key worth ranges, automated trades kicked in and pushed merchants to promote.

That promoting shortly unfold throughout main exchanges, driving costs even decrease and leaving giant buyers like BitMine with only a few secure choices.

The impression additionally reached the inventory market, with $BMNR falling to almost 6%, closing at $25.10.

So, now the important thing challenge is whether or not to give attention to short-term security or long-term perception.

Nonetheless, if the inventory retains falling together with crypto costs, shareholders could push the corporate to chop threat.

Lee was ready

That mentioned, Lee had already warned buyers that early 2026 can be tough.

He pointed to rising commerce tensions and rising issues across the Federal Reserve as key dangers.

Lee additionally expects added uncertainty because the Fed transitions from Jerome Powell to a possible successor, Kevin Warsh.

In his view, 2026 may compress worry, downturns, and restoration right into a single unstable 12 months.

“2026 is shaping as much as be much like 2025. So a painful decline could lie forward, however we might ‘purchase the dip.”

So, whether or not BitMine’s $9 billion crypto treasury turns right into a warning story or the bottom of a robust restoration in 2026 relies upon solely on that perception.

Closing Ideas

• With thousands and thousands of ETH on its books, even small worth strikes now have outsized penalties for BitMine.
• Macro uncertainty, Fed management adjustments, and commerce tensions add one other layer of threat to the technique.