Grayscale’s Bitcoin price prediction: Will BTC hit a new ATH in 2026?

Regardless of broader warning that 2026 could usher in a bear market, Grayscale has made a contrarian wager – a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) for Bitcoin [BTC]. 

In its 2026 outlook, the asset supervisor projected that rising demand for secure havens, also referred to as the debasement commerce, alongside regulatory readability, will drive BTC larger. 

“We count on rising valuations in 2026 and the tip of the so-called ‘four-year cycle.’ Bitcoin’s value will seemingly attain a brand new all-time excessive within the first half of the 12 months, in our view.”

Supply: Grayscale

Based on Grayscale, the U.S. debt drawback will persist, devalue greenback investments, and pressure gamers to hunt scarce ‘different shops of worth’ similar to gold, silver, BTC, or ETH. The agency added, 

“So long as the chance of fiat foreign money debasement retains rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will seemingly proceed rising as properly.”

Grayscale downplays DAT sell-off

On digital asset treasuries (DATs) sell-offs as a possible detrimental set off for a bear market, the agency downplayed such a situation. The MSCI index exclusion assessment, forward of the mid-January deadline, has unnerved many traders. 

Presently, many market individuals fear that Technique would possibly dump its BTC holdings, which may set off a market crash. This concern stems from the chance that MSCI may take away Technique, together with different DATs, from its index.

If that occurs amid already compressed mNAVs,  the relative worth of their crypto holdings in comparison with enterprise belongings, the strain available on the market may intensify.

Supply: Grayscale

Nevertheless, Grayscale said that almost all DATs aren’t excessively leveraged to set off liquidations and sell-offs. It added, 

“These automobiles are prone to be a everlasting function of the crypto investing panorama however are unlikely to be a significant supply of latest demand for tokens or a significant supply of promoting strain in 2026.”

Apparently, Bitwise echoed Grayscale’s bullish outlook. In a memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan famous that institutional capital and regulatory readability will drive the value of BTC larger in 2026. 

Even so, the present Choices market positioning on Deribit suggested warning and excessive hedging within the H1 2026.

This was revealed by the detrimental readings for 25-Delta Skew throughout 2-month, 3-month, and 6-month tenors, underscoring bearish sentiment. 

Supply: Amberdata

It’s nonetheless unsure whether or not the standard 4‑12 months cycle will probably be damaged. One other query is whether or not DATs may additional disrupt the markets via compelled liquidations.

On the similar time, BTC was buying and selling at $86k, transferring into per week marked by key macroeconomic updates.

Ultimate Ideas

• Grayscale projected that the seemingly passage of the crypto market construction invoice and debasement commerce will elevate BTC to a brand new ATH by H1 2026.
• Though the asset supervisor downplayed a DAT sell-off led by Technique, the market was nonetheless cautious.