Mapping Stellar’s market cycles: Can XLM’s current downtrend reverse?

• XLM peaked at $0.9 however plunged to $0.1 by 2019, a 90% decline from its 2018 all-time excessive.
• XLM’s liquidation heatmap revealed key liquidity zones and worth fluctuations between $0.262026 and $0.289401.

Stellar [XLM] has been in a normal downtrend for fairly a while. This has proven a historic sample of sharp worth fluctuations following peaks in its bubble threat oscillator.

The Quick-Time period Bubble Threat chart subsequently tracks worth in its oscillator ranges.

The oscillator, starting from 0 to 1, repeatedly spiked above 0.5, signaling excessive bubble threat. Notable spikes occurred in 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2025, every correlating with vital worth drops.

Supply: IntoTheBlock

In 2017, XLM peaked at $0.9 however plunged to $0.1 by 2019, a 90% decline from its 2018 all-time excessive (ATH). An analogous development emerged in 2021, when XLM reached $0.7 earlier than dropping to $0.1 by 2023.

In 2025, XLM briefly surged to $0.4 earlier than falling again to $0.1, aligning with the oscillator’s peak at 0.808, indicating sturdy bearish momentum.

Traditionally, every oscillator spike above 0.5 has preceded a considerable decline, suggesting continued volatility.

Regardless of historic downtrends, a drop within the oscillator beneath 0.5 with stability may sign a reversal.

If XLM maintains a worth above $0.4, it might break away from its sample of steep declines, probably getting into a bullish part.

XLM: Insights from ATH declines

The XLM Share Drawdown from ATH chart highlighted the coin’s worth historical past and vital declines. After peaking at $0.9 in 2018, XLM dropped over 90% to $0.1 by 2019.

Supply: IntoTheBlock

An analogous peak at $0.7 in 2021 led to an -80% drawdown by 2022. In 2025, XLM briefly hit $0.4 earlier than falling to $0.1, registering an -84.5% decline.

The constant sample of -80% to -90% drawdowns underscores the asset’s volatility and bearish tendencies.

Due to this fact, a sustained worth above $0.4, mixed with a drawdown of lower than -50%, could point out a bullish reversal. If XLM stabilizes with diminished volatility, it may shift away from its historic development of steep declines.

Liquidation dangers and secure entry zones

XLM’s liquidation heatmap reveals key liquidity zones and worth fluctuations between $0.262026 and $0.289401. The press time worth was $0.263026, with vital liquidation leverage above $0.28.

Dense clusters at $0.285 and $0.289401 highlighted excessive liquidation dangers if costs rise.

Supply: Coinglass

Alternatively, decrease liquidity swimming pools exist at $0.27 and $0.265, with a comparatively safer entry level close to $0.262026, the place liquidation strain is minimal.

Thus, buyers looking for decrease liquidation threat could take into account getting into between $0.262026 and $0.265, avoiding positions above $0.28.

A breakout past $0.289401 with diminished liquidation strain may sign a bullish development, making entries above $0.29 extra viable for momentum merchants.

Lastly, XLM’s historic traits point out continued volatility, with sharp worth corrections following oscillator peaks.

Nevertheless, a stabilization in drawdowns and diminished liquidation strain may supply a path for restoration.