Powell’s ‘rate cut’ pause puts Bitcoin’s price on hold—Is the rally over?
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin nonetheless sits on $1.4 trillion in unrealized revenue. With a key macro catalyst off the desk, is conviction in additional upside beginning to crack?
A pivotal day simply closed out. The Federal Reserve stored charges unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. It was proper in step with expectations after June’s sticky 0.3% core CPI.
Powell’s ‘fee minimize’ pause places Bitcoin’s value on Maintain—Is the rally over?
As anticipated, Bitcoin [BTC] remained range-bound under the $120K resistance, consolidating in a good band. On the floor, it seems like bulls are absorbing volatility properly.
However underneath the hood, long-term holders have began trimming publicity. May or not it’s that LTHs are front-running macro headwinds that the broader market has but to cost in?
Powell’s pause sparks repricing throughout the curve
As AMBCrypto famous, the Fed’s hawkish lean was already priced in. Bitcoin’s muted transfer (+0.12%) mirrored a market in stability. No new catalyst, no quantity enlargement, simply chop close to resistance.
That stated, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s line on a potential 25bps cut in September stood out:
“We’ve made no selections about September.”
That was all it took for markets to reprice the curve. September minimize odds collapsed to 41% (from >90% a month in the past).
In the meantime, zero cuts for all of 2025 surged to 25% post-FOMC.
Supply: Kalshi
Briefly, This fall coverage easing expectations have de-rated.
No shock there both. Trump’s tariff flip-flops have solely added macro uncertainty, undercutting Bitcoin’s September breakout potential. In flip, compressing its This fall upside asymmetry.
Assume again to September 2024.
The Fed kicked off easing with a 50 bps minimize, and BTC rallied from a $60k base to $73k by October-end. With that catalyst now priced out, Bitcoin may stay liquidity-starved heading into Q3 shut.
Bitcoin paper features at report excessive, however conviction’s thinning
Bitcoin held structurally intact post-FOMC, however market internals are softening. The Worry & Greed Index is pulling again, signaling that threat urge for food is fading on the margins.
On-chain flows verify the shift: Lengthy-term holders (LTHs) have distributed 207,000 BTC over the previous 30 days, signaling strategic de-risking amongst high-conviction cohorts.
In the meantime, Whole Unrealized Revenue (NUPL mixture) has reached an all-time excessive of $1.4 trillion. That’s quite a lot of latent provide. And with out contemporary catalysts, a few of it would begin coming to market.
Supply: Glassnode
Clearly, there’s quite a bit on the road.
However with Powell backing off a September minimize and markets repricing dovish bets, the liquidity backdrop is drying up.
With out that gas, Bitcoin may keep caught under resistance, as profit-taking kicks in and conviction cools heading into Q3 shut.
