Decoding ARK’s ‘Big Ideas 2026’: Can Bitcoin really capture 70% of market?
Whereas the market usually fixates on weekly candle closes and ETF inflows, ARK Make investments’s “Massive Concepts 2026” report suggests we’re not in its early section, however getting into a significant structural shift.
Based on the report, Cathie Wooden’s newest outlook goes past easy progress expectations.
ARK projected that the entire worth of digital belongings may attain $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin taking part in the central position.
In truth, the agency believes Bitcoin will account for round 70% of the general market, giving it a possible valuation of $16 trillion.
How did 2025 work in favour of Bitcoin?
The 12 months 2025 ended the concept Bitcoin [BTC] is principally a speculative asset and launched what ARK calls the “Strategic Reserve period”.
Two key political occasions modified how Bitcoin’s threat was seen.
After U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, regulatory uncertainty eased, and markets rapidly adjusted.
This shift turned clearer in March 2025, when an govt order signaled that the U.S. authorities was prepared to deal with Bitcoin as a nationwide treasury asset. And…that call triggered a wider response.
Throughout the U.S., states started competing to construct their very own Bitcoin reserves, with Texas and varied others launching a state-level strategic reserve by the top of 2025.
Exterior the U.S., Japan’s Metaplanet constructed a Bitcoin treasury value $5.4 billion, exhibiting that curiosity in Bitcoin as a long-term retailer of worth is spreading globally, not simply in Western markets.
The ETF area speaks volumes
Moreover, in 2025, Bitcoin held by ETFs grew by 19.7%, reaching 1.29 million BTC.
Much more notable, Bitcoin held by public firms jumped 73%, reaching 1.09 million BTC.
Including additional, the report famous,
“Consequently, the p.c of bitcoin excellent held by ETFs and public firms elevated from 8.7% to 12%.”
Curiously, Bitcoin additionally stood out by way of threat and returns.
In 2025, its risk-adjusted efficiency was higher than Ethereum [ETH], Solana [SOL], and the broader CoinDesk 10 index.
This helps ARK’s view that Bitcoin is changing into a safe-haven asset for establishments, slightly than only a risky funding.
Present market dynamics
As per CoinMarketCap knowledge, Bitcoin was trading round $89,912, down simply 0.75% within the final 24 hours. But, regardless of this, the Bitcoin dominance chart stood close to 59.7% at press time.
So, slightly than being a warning signal, this stage of dominance is taken into account wholesome.
It confirmed that cash will not be leaving crypto, however as an alternative transferring towards the asset traders see as probably the most safe.
Ark’s tackle stablecoins and RWAs
Moreover, ARK’s report additionally talked about how the GENIUS Act gave clear authorized help to stablecoins, which helped drive fast progress.
By December 2025, stablecoin transaction quantity reached $3.5 trillion.
The report added,
“Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, dominated adjusted transaction quantity with ~60% share, adopted by Tether’s USDT’s ~35%.”
On the identical time, the entire worth of tokenized real-world belongings (RWAs) additionally tripled to $18.9 billion, and ARK believes this space alone may develop to $11 trillion by 2030.
This contradicts Wooden’s November 2025 view, when she lowered her most bullish Bitcoin worth goal for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.
Ultimate Ideas
- Volatility now masks structural strengthening slightly than systemic fragility.
- Political readability in 2025 basically altered Bitcoin’s threat profile, accelerating its adoption as a strategic reserve asset.
