Bitcoin is facing a hidden “supply wall” at $93,000 that creates a ceiling no rally can break right now
Bitcoin surged $3,000 in an hour on Dec. 17, reclaiming $90,000 as $120 million briefly positions vaporized, then collapsed to $86,000 as $200 million in longs liquidated, finishing a $140 billion market-cap swing in two hours.
The motion was pushed by leverage, making it appear that leveraged positions are uncontrolled. Nevertheless, Glassnode’s knowledge tells a distinct story.
In a Dec. 17 report, the agency famous that perpetual futures open curiosity has declined from cycle highs, funding charges stayed impartial by means of the drawdown, and short-dated implied volatility compressed after the FOMC quite than spiking.
The whipsaw was skinny liquidity colliding with concentrated choices positioning, not reckless leverage. The precise constraint is structural: overhead provide between $93,000 and $120,000, mixed with December choices expiries that mechanically pin worth into a variety.
Overhead resistance
Bitcoin worth briefly misplaced the $85,000 footing by mid-December, ranges final seen almost a yr earlier, regardless of two main rallies. That spherical journey left dense provide from consumers who entered close to the highs, with the Quick-Time period Holder Value Foundation at $101,500.
So long as the worth stays under that threshold, each rally runs into sellers making an attempt to cut back losses, mirroring early 2022 when restoration makes an attempt had been capped by overhead resistance.
Cash held at a loss climbed to six.7 million BTC, the very best stage this cycle, and have remained within the 6-7 million vary since mid-November.
Of the 23.7% of provide underwater, 10.2% is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders, which means loss-bearing provide from current consumers is maturing into the long-term cohort and subjecting holders to extended stress that traditionally precedes capitulation.
Loss realization is rising. Provide attributed to “loss sellers” reached roughly 360,000 BTC, and additional draw back, significantly under the True Market Imply at $81,300, dangers increasing this cohort.
The Dec. 17 liquidation occasion was a violent expression of an underlying constraint: extra cash overhead than affected person capital prepared to soak up them.
Spot stays episodic
Cumulative Quantity Delta reveals periodic buy-side bursts that did not become sustained accumulation.
Coinbase CVD stays comparatively constructive from US-based participation, whereas Binance and combination flows stay uneven.
Current declines haven’t triggered decisive CVD growth, which means dip-buying stays tactical quite than conviction-driven.
Company treasury flows stay episodic, with sporadic giant inflows from a small subset of companies interspersed with minimal exercise.
Current weak spot has not triggered coordinated treasury accumulation, suggesting company consumers stay price-sensitive.
Treasury exercise contributes to headline volatility however is just not a dependable structural demand.
Futures have de-risked, choices pin the vary
Perpetual futures contradict the “leverage uncontrolled” narrative. Open curiosity trended decrease from cycle highs, signaling a discount in positions quite than recent leverage, whereas funding charges remained contained, oscillating round impartial.
The Dec. 17 liquidation was extreme as a result of it occurred in a thinned-out market the place modest unwinds moved costs violently, not as a result of combination leverage reached harmful ranges.
Implied volatility compressed on the entrance finish after the FOMC, whereas longer maturities remained secure, suggesting merchants actively lowered near-term publicity.
The 25-delta skew remained in put territory at the same time as front-end vol compressed, and merchants keep draw back safety quite than rising it.
Choices circulation has been dominated by put gross sales, adopted by put purchases, indicating premium monetization alongside continued hedging. Put promoting associates with yield technology and confidence that draw back stays contained, whereas put shopping for reveals safety persists.
Merchants are snug harvesting premium in a range-driven market.
The vital constraint now’s expiry focus. Open curiosity reveals threat closely concentrated in two late-December expiries, with significant quantity rolling off Dec. 19 and a bigger focus on Dec. 26.
Giant expiries compress positioning into particular dates, amplifying their affect. At present ranges, this leaves sellers lengthy gamma on either side, incentivizing them to promote rallies and purchase dips.
This mechanically reinforces range-bound motion and suppresses volatility. The impact intensifies on Dec. 26, the yr’s largest expiry. As soon as that passes and hedges roll off, worth gravity from this positioning weakens.
Till then, the market is mechanically pinned between roughly $81,000 and $93,000, with the decrease certain outlined by the True Market Imply and the higher certain by overhead provide and supplier hedging.
The Dec. 17 whipsaw was a liquidity occasion inside a structurally constrained market, not proof of spiraling leverage. Futures open curiosity is down, funding is impartial, and short-dated volatility compressed.
What appears like a leverage downside is provide distribution mixed with options-driven gamma pinning.
