Bitcoin: Why J.P. Morgan believes that BTC can reach $266K in 2026

By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a extremely unstable section, with sharp swings in worth and combined indicators from the market.

Though Bitcoin has recovered to about $70,318, gaining 2.23% in at some point, it’s nonetheless down by 26% previously month, exhibiting how extreme the latest drop has been.

This fall has pushed the Crypto Concern and Greed Index to 13, a degree referred to as “Excessive Concern,” which displays sturdy panic amongst buyers.

Regardless of this worry, Bitcoin continues to be dominating the crypto market, holding almost 59% of the overall market worth.

Blended Bitcoin dynamics

On the similar time, massive buyers are slowly returning.

After huge cash flowed out earlier within the week, spot Bitcoin ETFs noticed $15.1 million in new inflows on thirteenth February, suggesting that establishments could also be shopping for once more.

On the technical aspect, Bitcoin’s community can be altering. For the primary time in years, each mining problem and hashrate are falling.

Supply: Glassnode

This implies some miners are shutting down as a result of rising prices and decrease costs are making it laborious to remain worthwhile. This section is commonly referred to as miner capitulation.

Total, the market is caught between worry from small buyers and quiet shopping for from huge gamers.

Whereas short-term charts nonetheless present uncertainty, main Wall Road banks are actually specializing in long-term shopping for quite than short-term worth strikes.

J.P. Morgan’s long-term guess

Seeing the present market dynamics, J.P. Morgan has lowered Bitcoin’s estimated “worth flooring” (the price to provide one Bitcoin) from $90,000 to $77,000.

This modification occurred primarily as a result of mining problem fell by about 15%, many high-cost mining operations shut down, and extreme winter storms within the U.S., particularly in Texas, disrupted mining exercise.

But, regardless of these challenges and changes, J.P. Morgan expects Bitcoin to achieve $266,000 in 2026.

This confidence relies on hopes that the CLARITY Act will go, making it simpler for big establishments to put money into crypto.

This adopted the financial institution’s constructing its personal crypto programs. Via its Kinexys unit, it’s increasing its digital greenback token and making ready to supply crypto custody providers for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs, which as soon as criticized Bitcoin, has now additionally added main digital belongings to its portfolio. 

What does this imply for buyers?

All it’s because the banks consider new rules will make crypto safer and extra enticing for big buyers.

Curiously, the Donald Trump administration is strongly supporting the CLARITY Act.

Patrick Witt, who works with the White Home on digital belongings, stated the purpose is to go the regulation earlier than the November 2026 midterm elections.

Nevertheless, the invoice is transferring slowly within the Senate. 

Now, whether or not the CLARITY Act passes quickly or later in 2026, crypto within the U.S. is transferring away from a wild west section and towards a extra regulated, bank-supported system.

Ultimate Abstract

• Bitcoin goes by means of a serious take a look at section, with excessive volatility and powerful worry amongst small buyers.
• Falling mining problem and hashrate level to miner capitulation, which frequently occurs throughout main market resets.