Bitcoin metrics signal a breakout, but a massive “underwater” supply wall is secretly pinning prices below $93,000

Bitcoin (BTC) walks to shut 2025 with greater than $112 billion locked in US spot ETFs, alternate reserves at a document low of two.751 million BTC, and perpetual futures open curiosity of almost $30 billion.

Each single a kind of information factors would have sounded constructive in 2022. In late 2025, they map to the identical end result: value chopping between $81,000 and $93,000 whereas narratives keep bullish and volatility stays suppressed.

The hole between what the numbers say and the way the market trades defines structural stagnation. On this regime, liquidity exists however does not circulation, the place capital is giant however fragmented, and the place the plumbing cannot translate headline demand into directional conviction.

The inform got here on Dec. 17, when Bitcoin liquidated $120 million of shorts and $200 million of longs inside hours, not as a result of leverage exploded however as a result of order books could not take in the round-trip with out whipsawing.

Spot depth on tier-one centralized exchanges seems to be acceptable on paper. CoinGecko’s June 2025 report pegs the median BTC order-book depth at $20 million to $25 million on both sides, inside ±$100 of the mid-price throughout eight main venues.

Binance alone provides roughly $8 million on bid and ask, accounting for 32% of the entire. Bitget holds $4.6 million, OKX $3.7 million. Zoom in to a ±$10 band and solely Binance clears $1 million on both sides.

Many of the different exchanges sit between $100,000 and $500,000, with Kraken and Coinbase nearer to $100,000. That is institutional-grade depth if traders are crossing a number of hundred cash.

But, it is tissue paper if a medium-sized fund decides to rebalance or a macro occasion forces simultaneous unwinding throughout venues.

Kaiko’s February 2025 liquidity ranking confirms the asymmetry: market depth has clawed again to pre-FTX ranges for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, however greater than half of the highest 50 tokens by market cap nonetheless fail to generate $200 million in common each day quantity.

Liquidity past the majors decays quick, and Kaiko flags that when buying and selling exercise runs scorching relative to out there depth, value affect jumps non-linearly. The structure has recovered; the capability hasn’t scaled.

Blood-flow downside

Low alternate reserves cleanly mapped to bullish provide dynamics: fewer cash on venues meant much less stock out there to promote.

That logic breaks when cash cease transferring between exchanges. CryptoQuant’s Inter-Alternate Circulation Pulse (IFP) has weakened all through 2025, indicating that arbitrageurs and market makers are much less energetic in transferring Bitcoin throughout venues to use mispricings.

Decrease IFP thins out the mixture order e-book and makes prices more sensitive to individual orders, even small ones. When record-low reserves with weak inter-exchange circulation are mixed, shortage expresses as fragility reasonably than mechanical power.

Binance complicates the image additional. Whereas most main exchanges report web BTC outflows, Binance has recorded web inflows, concentrating tradable stock on the only venue the place value discovery occurs.

That centralization blunts the “low reserves equals bullish” framing, as a result of sellable provide is pooling precisely the place liquidity issues most.

If depth is shallow all over the place else and targeting one platform, any giant circulation, whether or not ETF redemption, macro-driven promoting, or derivatives unwind, hits the identical choke level.

Derivatives reset with out conviction

Perpetual futures open curiosity dropped from cycle highs close to $50 billion to roughly $28 billion by mid-December, per Glassnode’s latest report. That is a near-50% drawdown available in the market’s means to soak up directional bets.

Funding charges hovered close to the 0.01% baseline throughout the latest selloff, reasonably than spiking both means, and Binance’s late-October funding be aware exhibits BTC and main alt perps sitting near impartial with minimal deviation.

The market is not paying as much as be lengthy or quick, as positioning has been de-risked, not re-levered.

Choices positioning layers in a second constraint. The identical Glassnode report pointed to Bitcoin working right into a “hidden provide wall” between $93,000 and $120,000, the place the short-term holder price foundation sits round $101,500 and roughly 6.7 million BTC, 23.7% of circulating provide, trades underwater.

About 360,000 BTC of latest promoting got here from holders realizing losses. That loss-bearing provide migrates into the long-term holder cohort, which traditionally precedes both capitulation or prolonged range-bound chop.

Dec. 26 marks the 12 months’s largest choices expiry, with heavy gamma positioning pinning the spot value in an $81,000-$93,000 vary till these contracts roll off. Derivatives aren’t driving volatility, however reasonably suppressing it.

ETF flows as noise, not sign

US spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain roughly 1.3 million BTC, about 6.5% of the market cap, and cumulative web inflows sit at $57.5 billion as of Dec. 18, per Farside Traders information.

That makes the ETF channel structurally vital, however not directionally dependable. December’s circulation sample was a whipsaw: Dec. 15 noticed $357.6 million in web outflows, Dec. 16 one other $277.2 million, after which Dec. 17 reversed with $457.3 million in web inflows, led by Constancy’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT.

On Dec. 15, Bitcoin held close to $87,000 at the same time as ETFs bled greater than $350 million in a single day, stressing that ETF flows at the moment are giant sufficient to maneuver intraday sentiment however not constantly additive to cost.

The automobile is buying and selling macro expectations and price coverage, not delivering a gradual “up solely” impulse.

What stagnation seems to be like in Q1 2026

Structural stagnation is not a bearish name, however only a liquidity regime.

Spot books on high centralized exchanges have recovered to pre-FTX ranges for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, close-to-mid liquidity stays within the low single-digit thousands and thousands per aspect on most venues and is overwhelmingly targeting Binance.

On-exchange reserves sit at document lows, however inter-exchange flows have collapsed, so skinny books translate to jumpier slippage and bigger value affect for a similar notional.

Perpetual open curiosity reset, funding stays impartial, and choices plus overhead spot provide between $93,000 and $120,000 mechanically pin Bitcoin into a variety till new capital or a macro catalyst forces repositioning.

ETF flows swing by tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} day after day, however the signal flips on price information, employment prints, and Fed steerage reasonably than crypto-native fundamentals.

Until one in all three issues modifications, Bitcoin can have bullish headlines, new merchandise, and increasing infrastructure whereas value motion stays uneven and range-bound by way of the primary half of 2026.

Liquidity exists, nevertheless it’s caught. The infrastructure is institutional-grade, nevertheless it’s not scale-ready. The capital is giant, nevertheless it’s fragmented throughout venues, wrappers, and jurisdictions.

That is what structural stagnation means: not damaged, not bearish, simply boxed in by its personal plumbing till one thing forces the subsequent leg.