Bitcoin’s ETF inflows surge 4x – So why does BTC still feel heavy?
Key Takeaways
What’s subsequent for Bitcoin post-Fed charge resolution?
Analysts have been cut up; some projected a rally towards $160K, whereas others warned of restricted impression attributable to weak macro knowledge.
Can BTC ETF inflows drive the restoration?
This could possibly be probably, particularly if the tempo of demand improves, in accordance with Glassnode.
Bitcoin [BTC] has recovered however sluggishly for the reason that tenth of October flash crash. A part of the most recent rebound was fueled by enhancing macro entrance and renewed demand from establishments.
Up to now 4 consecutive buying and selling days, for instance, the Spot BTC ETFs posted an influx streak.
And the demand has climbed steadily from $20 million in Every day Web Inflows to $202 million on the twenty ninth of October. Total, the merchandise have attracted over $460 million up to now few days.
Supply: SoSo Worth
Sadly, BTC value did not surge above $117K regardless of the renewed demand from ETFs. Based on Glassnode, the sluggish restoration could possibly be because of the tempo of ETF inflows.
The on-chain analytics added,
“Inflows stay <1k BTC/day, considerably decrease than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the beginning of main rallies this cycle. Demand is recovering, however not on the depth of latest rallies.”
Supply: Glassnode
However the sluggish demand wasn’t the one factor capping BTC’s robust restoration. Huge gamers proceed to dump their BTC holdings.
Lengthy-term holders sell-off continues
CryptoQuant data confirmed that Lengthy-Time period Holders (LTH), or those that have held BTC for over 6 months, dumped over 325K BTC in October alone. That will translate to over $35 billion in sell-off, assuming the typical value of $110K per BTC.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Based on CryptoQuant analyst JA Marrtunn, this was the sharpest “month-to-month drawdown since July 2025.”
Nonetheless, the constructive macro outlook and the anticipated Fed easing cycle and finish of quantitative tightening (QT) may juice liquidity and rally threat property.
Diverging opinions on Fed impression
The truth is, even Fundstrat CIO, Tom Lee, projected that markets may rally after the Fed charge resolution. The macro catalyst may raise BTC as excessive as $160K, in accordance with some analysts.
However not all market watchers have been bullish. Singapore-based crypto buying and selling desk, QCP Capital, cautioned that the Fed charge resolution could possibly be a “non-event” as a result of lack of key knowledge to gauge inflation and labor markets.
QCP Capital analysts added that digital asset treasuries (DATs) misery may speed up the sell-off threat.
“If reductions persist, DATs could also be pressured into buybacks funded by asset gross sales, probably including one other wave of provide to already skinny markets.”
For his half, famend dealer, Cryp Nuevo, projected that BTC may ease round $112K-$111K, earlier than extending its restoration.
