Has Bitcoin bottomed? Why $60K may not be BTC’s floor

Within the present situation, the important thing query is whether or not the market has really bottomed. Traditionally, early bottoming indicators have a tendency to incorporate investor profit-taking, clear indicators of vendor exhaustion, and an asset changing into deeply oversold.

Is Bitcoin [BTC] exhibiting any of those indicators? From a technical standpoint, BTC’s RSI is deeply oversold, dropping to round 15. This transfer aligns with Bitcoin’s roughly 33% correction from the $97k peak.

Towards this setup, BTC’s 4% intraday soar from $60k hints at a possible native backside. Nonetheless, the important thing query is whether or not on-chain metrics affirm this view. If not, the bounce may rapidly flip right into a bull entice.

 Market questions BTC’s true backside

Regardless of early indicators, the market nonetheless doesn’t appear absolutely satisfied. 

On one aspect, analysts argue that Bitcoin’s present pullback is just an “extension” of the 2025 bear section, although BTC printed a brand new all-time excessive close to $126k in the course of the cycle. 

So, what is that this divergence signaling? By this view, BTC has continued to underperform because the begin of 2025 regardless of the ATH, falling 33% versus the S&P500, 58% versus gold, and 26% relative to M2 enlargement.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/Gold)

In easy phrases, analysts consider Bitcoin could now be carving out a backside, supported by its 30% correction since early 2025. Beneath this view, the bear section may very well be nearing an finish, with $60k performing as a base for a reversal.

Nonetheless, skeptics argue that $60k could mark the beginning of a deeper transfer.

Traditionally, Bitcoin bear markets have adopted a sample of deep however shrinking declines. If this development continues, a possible 2026 backside close to a 70% drop from the $126k ATH would place Bitcoin across the $38k stage.

This units up a key strategic query for the market: Are individuals positioning to build up the “dip,” or lowering publicity earlier than a deeper correction pushes PnL additional into the purple and extends the bear section?

Bitcoin’s restoration case weakens as structural stress builds

The street to restoration for Bitcoin HODLers doesn’t look quick.

In accordance with Glassnode data, greater than 9.3 million BTC are underwater, the best stage since January 2023. Put merely, a big portion of holders are sitting on unrealized losses, placing market conviction underneath stress.

On the identical time, Bitcoin has dropped under its estimated electrical price close to $77k. When value falls beneath this stage, mining becomes less profitable, growing capitulation threat throughout late-stage bear markets.

Supply: X

Taken collectively, Bitcoin now wants a transparent catalyst to soak up provide, reignite FOMO, and restore HODLing conviction amongst underwater holders. The important thing difficulty is {that a} sturdy institutional bid nonetheless hasn’t returned.

From a macro perspective, this units up a traditional supply-demand imbalance, with accessible provide outpacing demand. Rising capitulation threat solely strengthens this dynamic, additional discouraging long-term holding.

On this context, BTC’s construction doesn’t but affirm $60k as a backside.

The outcome? Bitcoin’s 4% intraday bounce may fade into one other fakeout, doubtlessly triggering lengthy liquidations and sending value again towards the $50k zone, retaining the broader $38k backside thesis firmly in play.

Remaining Ideas

• Regardless of BTC’s 4% intraday bounce and early technical indicators, on-chain stress, miner stress, and unrealized losses counsel the $60k stage shouldn’t be but a agency flooring.
• Historic patterns and macro supply-demand imbalances point out Bitcoin may revisit the $50k zone, retaining the $38k backside thesis in play.