U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders face 8.5% loss: Is BTC in trouble?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders had been underwater.

In response to Jim Bianco, a macro funding analysis analyst at Bianco Analysis, the Common Price Foundation for all ETF consumers since 2024 was $90.2K.

After the prolonged dip previously 24 hours, BTC worth slipped to $82.3K at press time. Due to this fact, buyers who’ve held ETFs since their launch had been down by about 8.5%.

Supply: Bianco Analysis/Bloomberg

Is BTC rebound nonetheless on the playing cards?

In late 2025, BTC ETF inflows dropped sharply and continued to fluctuate into the brand new yr. This decline additional weakened prospects for a powerful rebound.

Nevertheless, the correlation between the BTC ETF’s Common Price Foundation and worth revealed an vital perception. As an illustration, in September 2024, when the worth fell under the ETF’s common buy degree, BTC consolidated round that time earlier than staging a powerful restoration.

An analogous sample emerged in early 2025 through the tariff‑pushed market dump, when BTC as soon as once more bounced off the ETF common value foundation.

If the present pattern mirrors Q3 2024, one other rebound could possibly be doable, with a possible backside forming under $90K.

 This thesis is supported by Bianco Analysis information, which exhibits the mixed common buy worth for Technique and spot BTC ETFs at present sits at $84.5K.

All through this cycle, main drawdowns have persistently eased at this degree. In consequence, defending $84.5K seems essential to sustaining the broader bullish market construction.

Supply: Bianco Analysis

In different phrases, a sustained dip under $84.5K and a crack under this key help could sign a deeper drawdown, ultimately invalidating the broader bullish market construction.  

Mapping BTC’s mid-term headwinds

However do different information units help such a restoration outlook? 

In response to the 30-day common of BTC demand development, it flipped adverse for the primary time since mid-2025. Given the recoveries in 2024 and 2025, the same transfer is simply doable if ETFs return to being web consumers. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

However in keeping with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the market will stabilize solely after the brand new Fed chair decide has been confirmed and examined.

Already, U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to announce the brand new Fed chair decide later at this time has stirred the markets, underscoring a turbulent 2026, as beforehand projected by Lee. 

Remaining Ideas 

• If BTC decisively reclaims the mixed Technique and spot BTC ETFs’ common buy worth of $84.5K.
• Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projected a deeper drawdown as markets take a look at the brand new Fed chair.